| 渤海西岸致灾风暴潮的统计预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王月宾.渤海西岸致灾风暴潮的统计预报模型[J].气象,2007,33(9):40-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王月宾 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州大学,730000;河北省沧州市气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 渤海西岸是风暴潮灾害多发区,1990年代以后发生几率和灾害损失明显增加。利用气象科学和海洋水文科学相结合的方法,依据黄骅港潮汐资料,对发生在渤海西岸的风暴潮进行统计分析。结果表明,台风和强冷空气配合气旋是造成渤海西岸风暴潮的主要天气系统,偏东大风增水和天文潮叠加是造成风暴潮的直接因素;风暴潮和天文潮汐都有半日潮现象。在此基础上,建立了渤海西岸风暴潮预报模型,通过台风或冷空气配合气旋影响时增水值的计算,结合天文潮汐资料,做出最高潮位预报。应用该预报方法对渤海西岸发生的7次风暴潮进行回报,预报值与实测值基本相当,是基层台站较实用的预报方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 渤海西岸 风暴潮 增水值 预报模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/4/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-04-25 |
Statistical Forecast Model of Storm Surge on West Coast of the Bohai Sea |
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| Wang Yuebin.Statistical Forecast Model of Storm Surge on West Coast of the Bohai Sea[J].Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(9):40-46. |
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| Authors: | Wang Yuebin |
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| Institution: | 1. Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 ; 2. Cangzhou Meteorological Office, Hebei Province |
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| Abstract: | Storm surge occurs frequently in the west coast of the Bohai Sea.Its frequency and disaster losses have shown an obvious tendency to increase since 1990.Based on the tide data obtained at Huanghua harbor,the feature of storm surge in the west coast of the Bohai Sea was statistically analyzed by means of a combined technique of meteorological and marine-hydrological sciences.The results show that the typhoon and strong cold air matching with cyclone are most synoptic systems which result in the storm surge of Bohai Sea.The rising water with strong easterly wind,together with astronomic tide,are the direct factors.Both the storm surge and the astronomic tide occur in the form of semidiurnal tide.On the basis of above results,a forecast model of storm surge was set up,then the rising water value caused by typhoon or cold cyclones was calculated,the maximum tide is forecasted through superposition of astronomical tidal data.The forecast method is applied to the hindcast experiments of 7 storm surges that occurred in the west coast of Bohai Sea,and the result is more satisfactory.The method is very useful for coastal stations. |
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| Keywords: | west coast of Bohai Sea storm surge rising water value forecast model |
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