Using a rainfall stochastic generator to detect trends in extreme rainfall |
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| Authors: | Philippe Cantet Jean-No?l Bacro Patrick Arnaud |
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| Institution: | (1) Cemagref, 3275 route de C?zanne CS 40061, 13182 Aix-en-Provence, Cedex 5, France;(2) I3M, UMR CNRS 5149, Universite Montpellier II, CC 51, 4 Place Eugene Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France |
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| Abstract: | An original approach is proposed to estimate the impacts of climate change on extreme events using an hourly rainfall stochastic
generator. The considered generator relies on three parameters. These parameters are estimated by average, not by extreme,
values of daily climatic characteristics. Since climate changes should result in parameters instability in time, the paper
focuses on testing the presence of linear trends in the generator parameters. Maximum likelihood tests are used under a Poisson–Pareto-Peak-Over-Threshold model. A general regionalization procedure is also proposed which offers the possibility to work on both local and regional
scales. From the daily information of 139 rain gauge stations between 1960 and 2003, changes in heavy precipitations in France
and their impacts on quantile predictions are investigated. It appears that significant changes occur mainly between December
and May for the rainfall occurrence which increased during the four last decades, except in the Mediterranean area. Using
the trend estimates, one can deduced that these changes, up to now, do not affect quantile estimations. |
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