Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki,New Zealand |
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| Authors: | Michael B Turner Shane J Cronin Mark S Bebbington Thomas Platz |
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| Institution: | (1) Volcanic Risk Solutions, Institute of Natural Resources, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand;(2) Institute of Information Sciences and Technology, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand |
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| Abstract: | The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus, communities become inured to
their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify hazard from sporadically active volcanoes and to develop probabilistic
eruption forecasts. We compiled an eruption-event record for the last c. 9,500 years at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand through detailed
radiocarbon dating of recent deposits and a sediment core from a nearby lake. This is the highest-precision record ever collected
from the volcano, but it still probably underestimates the frequency of eruptions, which will only be better approximated
by adding data from more sediment core sites in different tephra-dispersal directions. A mixture of Weibull distributions
provided the best fit to the inter-event period data for the 123 events. Depending on which date is accepted for the last
event, the mixture-of-Weibulls model probability is at least 0.37–0.48 for a new eruption from Mt Taranaki in the next 50 years.
A polymodal distribution of inter-event periods indicates that a range of nested processes control eruption recurrence at
this type of arc volcano. These could possibly be related by further statistical analysis to intrinsic factors such as step-wise
processes of magma rise, assembly and storage. |
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| Keywords: | Eruption record Volcanic hazards Probabilistic eruption forecasting Weibull renewal model Holocene Mt Taranaki/Egmont New Zealand |
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