| 亚洲季风区ITCZ对华北雨季异常的可能影响 |
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| 作者姓名： | Zhang Suping Jiang Shangcheng |
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| 作者单位： | Zhang Suping Shandong Meteorological Institute，Ji'nan 250031 Jiang Shangcheng Dopartment of Geophysics，Beijing University，Beijing 100871 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了冬、春季亚洲季风区ITCZ活动对华北夏季降水的影响。用OLR资料定义了ITCZ综合指数，分析表明该指数能比较清晰、客观地综合反映出亚洲季风区深对流活动的强度和位置。用该指数分析了华北多雨年和少雨年前期热带大范围对流活动的变化特征。印度和东亚季风区的ITCZ活动在多雨和少雨年显示出明显不同。华北夏季降水与2-4月ITCZ综合指数的时滞相关性最明显。这种时滞相关可能与球面Rossby波的频散相联系，并可以为华北夏季降水的长期预报提供新的参考依据。低频振荡分析表明，多雨年南北两个半球的低频振荡强度较强，范围较大，并不断由南向北传播，这种传播很可能与副热带高压的北跳有关。而少雨年低频振荡在南半球或热带地区呈准静止状态。
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| 关 键 词： | 华北雨季 OLR ITCZ 低频振荡 |
Possible Influences of ITCZ in Asian Monsoon Regions on Rainy Season Anomaly of North China |
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| Zhang Suping,Jiang Shangcheng.Possible Influences of ITCZ in Asian Monsoon Regions on Rainy Season Anomaly of North China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2001,18(5):1018-1028. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Suping and Jiang Shangcheng |
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| Institution: | Shandong Meteorological Institute, Jtnan 250031,Department of Geophysics, Beijing University, Beijing 100871 |
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| Abstract: | Vast convective activities over tropical zones are analyzed for both wet and dry summers in North China. An ITCZ synthesis index is designed using OLR data. The index can demonstrate quite clearly and objectively the seasonal featurea of deep convection in Asia monsoon areas. The differences of ITCZ activi ties in Indian as well as East Asian monsoon regions in winter-spring period are significant and so is the time-lagged correlation, which would be able to provide a new way to the long-lead prediction of summer rain in North China. The propagation characters of low frequency fluctuation are also different between wet and dry years. The intensity of low frequency fluctuation is stronger and the area is larger in wet years than that in dry years in both hemispheres. The fluctuation moves from south to north successively in wet years, which may lead to the leap of the subtropical high northwards, while it remains quasi-stationary in the Southern Hemisphere or the equatorial zone in dry years. |
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| Keywords: | Drought/ rainy summer in North China OLR ITCZ Low frequency fluctuation |
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