| 城镇化进程中成都市水资源利用的分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 潘雪倩,赵璐,孙菊英,孙林博,李玲,雷孝章.城镇化进程中成都市水资源利用的分析及预测[J].水文,2017,37(4):45-51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 潘雪倩 赵璐 孙菊英 孙林博 李玲 雷孝章 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据水量平衡理论,计算出研究区可利用水资源总量为91.04×10~8m~3。对用水量、水资源利用效率及影响因素进行研究。结果表明:成都市2000~2014年水资源利用效率整体呈Ⅴ型分布,2009年水资源利用效率达到最低值。城镇化的发展对水资源利用效率具有明显的负相关性,而工业水平及经济水平的发展能明显提高水资源利用效率。通过对用水结构的分析发现,城镇化的发展对农业用水影响不大,主要由于成都市水资源充沛,城市和工业的发展对农业用水的挤占不明显。采用BP神经网络模型预测2020年成都市需水量为40.02×10~8m~3,研究区水资源总量满足要求。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源 小波分析 利用效率 城镇化 用水结构 IPAT模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/2/24 0:00:00 |
Water Resources Utilization in Urbanization Progress of Chengdu City |
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| PAN Xueqian,ZHAO Lu,SUN Juying,SUN Linbo,LI Ling,LEI Xiaozhang.Water Resources Utilization in Urbanization Progress of Chengdu City[J].Hydrology,2017,37(4):45-51. |
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| Authors: | PAN Xueqian ZHAO Lu SUN Juying SUN Linbo LI Ling LEI Xiaozhang |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China |
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| Abstract: | According to the water balance analysis, the available total local water resources quantity is 91.04×108 m3 . The study was made on wa ter consumption, utilization efficiency of water resources and its influence factors. The results show that the cumulative distribution curve of the utilization efficiency ofwater resourceswasV-shapefrom 2000to 2014inChengdu, Sichuan Province andthe utilization efficiency reachedthelowest in 2009. Urbanization has obvious negative correlation on the utilization efficiency of water resources, while the development of industrialization and economic level can contribute to the utilization efficiency. By the analysis of water consumption structure, it can be concluded that urbanization has little effect on agricultural water consumption, mainly because Chengdu is rich of water resources. It is not obvious to occupy agricultural water consumption with the development of urbanization and industrialization. The water requirements in Chengdu was predicted to be 40.02×108 m3 applying BP neutral network, and the total local water resources quantity can meet the requirements in the study area. |
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| Keywords: | water resources wavelet analysis utilization efficiency urbanization water consumption structure IPAT Model |
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