| New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015–2030 |
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| 基金项目： | National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41501137, No.41530634, No.41271186 |
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| 摘 要： |
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| 收稿时间： | 2016-07-26 |
New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015-2030 |
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| Authors: | Dongqi Sun Liang Zhou Yu Li Haimeng Liu Xiaoyan Shen Zedong Wang Xixi Wang |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China2. Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China3. School of Resources & Environmental Engineering, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, Shandong, China |
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| Abstract: | The future development of new-type urbanization has drawn great attention from both the government and public alike. In this context, the present study had three related research aims. Firstly, it sought to predict the urbanization and population dynamics in China at both national and provincial levels for the period of 2015 to 2030. Secondly, on this basis, it sought to examine the spatial variation of urbanization given the predicted national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Thirdly, it sought to estimate and evaluate the national and provincial demands of investment in the development of new-type urbanization. The main conclusions from this study were as follows: (1) The population size and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030. (2) The demographic dividend will vanish when the population pressure reaches its maximum. During this period, there will be 70.16 million urban population born. The suburban population that becomes urbanized will be 316.7 million, and thus the net increase in urban population will reach 386 million. (3) Although the urbanization rate of every Chinese province will increase during 2015–2030, it will do so unequally, while differences in urbanization quality among provinces will also be substantial. In some provinces, moreover, the urbanization quality is not compatible with their eco-social development. (4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is required to fund new-type urbanization and the investment demand for each province varies greatly; for example, Guangdong province requires the most funding, amounting to approximately 148 times that required by Tibet, the province in least need of funding. In the final part of this study, policy suggestions concerning the investment of the new-type urbanization are put forward and discussed. |
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| Keywords: | new-type urbanization urbanization investment 2015-2030 forecasting China |
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