| 河北省冬麦区土壤水分监测预测系统及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚树然,陈道红,王西平,李春强,魏瑞江,王云秀.河北省冬麦区土壤水分监测预测系统及其应用[J].气象科技,2006,34(2):225-228. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚树然 陈道红 王西平 李春强 魏瑞江 王云秀 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河北省气象科学研究所,石家庄,050021
2. 河北师范大学资源与环境学院,石家庄,050016 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省局校科技合作基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 河北省冬小麦生育阶段正值少雨时期,一般年份只有在灌溉的情况下才能满足小麦生长发育的需求,麦区土壤水分实时监测预测对于灌溉决策十分重要。在冬小麦单站多层次土壤水分动态模型(VSMB模型)的基础上,根据河北省麦区从南到北冬小麦发育期和土壤类型的不同进行参数调整和修正,并对数据库进行设计,形成河北省整个冬麦区麦田土壤水分监测预测系统(RSM-MFS)。文中介绍了该系统的基本原理和功能,并对实际应用进行了效果分析。从近年在河北省冬麦区土壤水分的监测预测结果来看,监测相对误差在10%左右,风险预测相对误差在20%左右。
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| 关 键 词： | 土壤水分 冬小麦 监测模拟 风险预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-10-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-04-08 |
Regional Monitoring Forecasting System of Soil Moisture for Winter Wheat Area and Its Application in Hebei Province |
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| Yao Shuran,Chen Daohong,Wang Xiping,Li Chunqiang,Wei Ruijiang,Wang Yunxiu.Regional Monitoring Forecasting System of Soil Moisture for Winter Wheat Area and Its Application in Hebei Province[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2006,34(2):225-228. |
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| Authors: | Yao Shuran Chen Daohong Wang Xiping Li Chunqiang Wei Ruijiang Wang Yunxiu |
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| Institution: | 1 Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorology, Shijiazhuang 050021; 2 Resource and Environment Science College of Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050016 |
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| Abstract: | It is very important for winter wheat irrigation decisionmaking to monitor the regional soil moisture in Hebei Province because it is relatively dry during the development stage of winter wheat.Based on the Verdatile Soil Moisture Budget(VSMB) model for winter wheat at a single station,parameter modification is made according to the soil types and the developing stages of winter wheat from south to north in Hebei Province,and the Regional Soil Moisture Monitoring and Forecasting System(RSM-MFS) model for winter wheat in Hebei Province is established.The essential principles and functions of the system are described,and the effectiveness of application is analyzed.The results indicate that the relative monitoring error is about 10%,and the relative risk forecasting error is about 20%. |
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| Keywords: | soil moisture winter wheat monitoring simulation risk forecast |
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