The Green Bay ecosystem and assessment of climate change impacts |
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| Authors: | R B Wenger and H J Harris |
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| Institution: | (1) National Center for Environmental Assessment, United States Environmental Protection Agency, MS-A130, 26 West Martin Luther King Jr. Drive, Cincinnati, OH 45268, USA |
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| Abstract: | Climate change will have major impacts in the Great Lakes region of North America. Particularly vulnerable are shallow freshwater
estuaries, such as Lake Michigan’s Green Bay, located in the north-eastern part of the State of Wisconsin. Green Bay and the
Lower Fox River, its major tributary, were considered to be severely polluted as early as 1925. As a result of large expenditures
of money and a major research effort that has been conducted over the past 40 years or more, some progress has been made toward
the restoration of ecosystem integrity. However, work remains, and within this context, potential climate change impacts pose
additional challenges. We discuss in this paper a methodology that can be used to assess climate change impacts on ecosystems,
and describe an application to the Green Bay ecosystem. The methodology employs numerical methods to evaluate the inputs from
scientific, policy, and management experts who are knowledgeable about the ecosystem under study. The Green Bay ecosystem
application reveals that runoff from agriculture and urban sources, already a major ecosystem stressor, will be exacerbated
in the future as a result of climate change impacts. |
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