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Prediction on landslide displacement using a new combination model: a case study of Qinglong landslide in China
Authors:Wang  Weidong  Li  Jiaying  Qu  Xia  Han  Zheng  Liu  Pan
Institution:1.School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, 68 Shaoshan Road, Changsha, 410075, Hunan, China
;2.Key Laboratory of Engineering Structures of Heavy-Haul Railway, Ministry of Education, Changsha, 410075, Hunan, China
;3.China Railway Siyuan Survey and Design Group Co.LTD, 745 Wuchang Peace Avenue, Wuhan, 430063, Hubei, China
;
Abstract:

Prediction on landslide displacement plays an important role in landslide early warning. Many models have been proposed for this purpose. However, the accuracy of the prediction results by these models often varies under different conditions. Rational evaluation and comprehensive consideration of these results still remain a scientific challenge. A new comprehensive combination model is proposed to predict the landslides displacement. The elementary displacement prediction is made by the support vector machine model, the exponential smoothing model, and the gray model (GM)(1,1). The results of the models are comprehensively evaluated by combining the results and introducing the accuracy matrix. The optimal weight in the evaluation work is obtained. A rational prediction result can be attained based on the so-called combination model. The proposed method has been tested by the application of Qinglong landslides in Guizhou Province, China. The comparison between the prediction results and in situ measurement shows that the prediction precision of the proposed model is satisfactory. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the combination model can be reduced to 1.4316 (monitoring site JCK2), 1.2623 (monitoring site JCK4), 2.3758 (monitoring site JCK6), 2.2704 (monitoring site JCK8), 1.4247 (monitoring site JCK11), and 0.9449 (monitoring site JCK12), which is much lower than the RMSE of the individual models.

Keywords:
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