Quantitative precipitation forecasting over Narmada Catchment |
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| Authors: | K Krishna Kumar M K Soman |
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| Institution: | (1) Climatology and Hydrometeorology Division, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. H. J. Bhabha Road, 411008 Pashan, Pune, India |
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| Abstract: | Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) has been attempted over the Narmada Catchment following a statistical approach.
The catchment has been divided into five sub-regions for the development of QPF models with a maximum lead-time of 24 hours.
For this purpose the data of daily rainfall from 56 raingauge stations, twice daily observations on different surface meteorological
parameters from 28 meteorological observatories and upper air data from 11 aerological stations for the nine monsoon seasons
of 1972–1980 have been utilized. The horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture divergence
are computed using the kinematic method at different pressure levels and used as independent variables along with the rainfall
and surface meteorological parameters. Multiple linear regression equations have been developed using the stepwise procedure
separately with actual and square root and log-transformed rainfall using 8-year data (1972–1979). When these equations were
verified with an independent data for the monsoon season of 1980, it was found that the transformed rainfall equations fared
much better compared to the actual rainfall equations. The performance of the forecasts of QPF model compared to the climatological
and persistence forecasts has been assessed by computing the verification scores using the forecasts for the monsoon season
of 1980. |
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| Keywords: | Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) statistical forecasting dynamical parameters skill scores Narmada Catchment |
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