Integrating factor analysis and the Delphi method in scenario development: A case study of Dalmatia,Croatia |
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| Institution: | 1. Centre for Applied Bioethics, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington Campus, LE12 5RD, United Kingdom;2. Institute of Science and Technology Studies, University of Salamanca, Calle Alfonso X s/n, Campus Miguel de Unamuno, 37007 Salamanca, Spain;1. Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, West Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran;2. Department of Civil Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran;3. Department of Chemical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran;4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Tehran, Iran;5. Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Sciences, University of Neyshabur, Neyshabur, Iran;6. Department of Electrical Engineering, École de Technologie Supérieure, University of Québec, 1100 Notre-Dame St. W., Montreal, Quebec, Canada;7. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Florida A&M University-Florida State University (FAMU-FSU) College of Engineering, 2525 Pottsdamer Street, Building A, Suite A124, Tallahassee, FL 32310-6046, United States;8. School of Mechanical Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan, 250061, China |
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| Abstract: | When developing scenarios, it is challenging to integrate quantitative and qualitative methods. This paper describes a new approach to scenario construction for spatial research and planning that was used to conduct a case study of constructing explorative development scenarios for Dalmatia, Croatia, until 2031. The methodology of scenario development consisted of: 1. factor analysis, which was used to reduce and classify a large set of data on different aspects of spatial development and to isolate underlying factors of development characteristics. These factors were used as variables to develop a regional typology; and 2. two rounds of the Delphi method, where an interdisciplinary panel of experts examined possible future developments in the light of aforementioned factors supplemented with other, nonquantifiable factors. Multivariate analysis was proven to provide a sound, but also complex, quantitative foundation for recognising the underlying driving forces of development characteristics, while the participation of experts in the Delphi panel significantly improved recognition and interpretation of the factors crucial to scenario development. |
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| Keywords: | Scenario development Factor analysis Delphi method Quantitative methods Qualitative methods Dalmatia Croatia |
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