Scenarios of land system change in the Lao PDR: Transitions in response to alternative demands on goods and services provided by the land |
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| Institution: | 1. Environmental Geography Group, VU University Amsterdam, de Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012, Bern, Switzerland;3. Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 10, 3012, Bern, Switzerland;4. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland;1. University of Southern Queensland (USQ), Toowoomba, Queensland, 4350, Australia;2. National University of Laos, Vientiane, Lao PDR;3. The University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia;4. National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), Vientiane, Lao PDR;5. Australian National University (ANU), Canberra, Australia;1. Field to Market: The Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture, 777 N Capitol St NE, Ste 803, Washington DC 20002, USA;2. Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250, USA;3. Instituto de Ecología Regiona, National University of Tucumán – CONICET, CC 34, Horco Mole, Yerba Buena, 4107, Tucumán, Argentina;4. Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany;5. Integrative Research Institute for Human Environment Transformation (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany;6. Georges Lemaître Center for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, UCLouvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium;7. F.R.S.-FNRS, 1000 Brussels, Belgium;8. School of Public Policy and Global Affairs and Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Canada;9. Water and Land Resource Centre (WLRC), Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia & Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) of University of Bern, Switzerland, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;1. Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven 3720 BA, The Netherlands;1. Institute for Environmental studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research, WSL Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland;3. Tour du Valat Research Institute for the Conservation of Mediterranean wetlands, Le Sambuc, 13200, Arles, France;4. Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Technopôle Arbois-Méditerranée Bât. Villemin – BP 80, F-13545 Aix-en-Provence, Cedex 04, France;1. Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands;2. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research, WSL Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | Sudden and gradual land use changes can result in different socio-ecological systems, sometimes referred to as regime shifts. The Lao PDR (Laos) has been reported to show early signs of such regime shifts in land systems with potentially major socio-ecological implications. However, given the complex mosaic of different land systems, including shifting cultivation, such changes are not easily assessed using traditional land cover data. Moreover, regime shifts in land systems are difficult to simulate with traditional land cover modelling approaches. A novel simulation approach was employed that focused on simulating changes in land systems rather than focusing on land cover. With the CLUmondo model we simulated three scenarios of potential developments between the years 2010 and 2030 assuming different degrees of international market integration and sustainable growth objectives. Although all scenarios show a decline of shifting cultivation systems, the respective orientation of markets and land governance resulted in strongly different land change trajectories. The land system changes are strongly location dependent and different trajectories are found in different parts of the country. Some scenarios show clear elements of land sparing with intensification of land management in the valleys and re-growth of forest on sloping land. Other scenarios show elements of enhanced multi-functionality. The approach addressed methodological challenges in simulating land system regime shifts and complex mosaic landscapes while accounting for societal demands for different types of goods and services from land systems. The land systems approach allows a nuanced representation of different types of forests and agricultural systems such as shifting cultivation and commercial agricultural plantations. Simulation results contribute to a debate about desired future land use on the national scale including its environmental and socio-economic implications. |
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| Keywords: | Land use change Land system Regime-shifts Agricultural intensification Modelling Shifting cultivation |
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