The topology of geology 2: Topological uncertainty |
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| Institution: | 1. California Institute of Technology, Division of Geology and Planetary Sciences, 1200 E California Blvd, MC 100-23, 91125 Pasadena, CA, United States;2. Department of Lithosphere Dynamics, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ, German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;3. Institute of Geology, University of Innsbruck (Austria), Innrain 52, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria;4. Department of Land Use Planning and Climate Adaptation, Swedish Geotechnical Institute, SE-581 93 Linköping, Sweden;1. Colima Intercambio e Investigación en Vulcanología, Universidad de Colima, av. Universidad 333, Las Viboras 28040, Colima, Mexico;2. School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia;3. Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK |
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| Abstract: | Uncertainty is ubiquitous in geology, and efforts to characterise and communicate it are becoming increasingly important. Recent studies have quantified differences between perturbed geological models to gain insight into uncertainty. We build on this approach by quantifying differences in topology, a property that describes geological relationships in a model, introducing the concept of topological uncertainty. Data defining implicit geological models were perturbed to simulate data uncertainties, and the amount of topological variation in the resulting model suite measured to provide probabilistic assessments of specific topological hypotheses, sources of topological uncertainty and the classification of possible model realisations based on their topology. Overall, topology was found to be highly sensitive to small variations in model construction parameters in realistic models, with almost all of the several thousand realisations defining distinct topologies. In particular, uncertainty related to faults and unconformities was found to have profound topological implications. Finally, possible uses of topology as a geodiversity metric and validation filter are discussed, and methods of incorporating topological uncertainty into physical models are suggested. |
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| Keywords: | Topology Uncertainty Geological modelling Physical modelling |
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