| 基于节理不确定性的可靠度分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡康,任光明,常文娟,李征征,邹林志.基于节理不确定性的可靠度分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2022,33(2):53-60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡康 任光明 常文娟 李征征 邹林志 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室（成都理工大学），四川 成都 610059 |
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| 摘 要： | 边坡稳定性一直是边坡安全的重点研究对象，针对边坡评价中常见的不确定性因素，可靠度分析是值得利用的方法。为评价某节理发育的岩质岸坡稳定性，通过有限元计算软件，结合现场勘探测绘数据，建立以边坡节理强度参数c、φ为输入变量，安全系数为输出变量的点估计（PEM）计算概率模型，计算结果表明:节理发育对该边坡变形具有明显控制作用；边坡整体可靠性较好，破坏概率极低。最后，通过蒙托卡罗法对可靠度结果进行验证，结果表明两种方法的计算结果不存在显著性差异。研究结果表明节理对岩质边坡稳定具有良好的敏感性，基于节理不确定性的点估计法分析边坡可靠度是一种有效的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 节理岩质边坡 可靠度 Baecher模型 点估计 蒙托卡罗 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-06-03 |
Reliability analysis based on joint uncertainty: A case study of a rock slope in Tibet |
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| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Environment Protection (Chengdu University of Technology), Chengdu, Sichuan 610059, China2.Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited, Power Construction Corporation of China, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710065, China |
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| Abstract: | Slope stability has always been the key research object of slope safety. In view of the common uncertain factors in slope evaluation, reliability analysis is a valuable method. To evaluate the stability of a jointed rock slope, a point estimation (PEM) calculation probability model is established by using the finite element analysis software and the field survey data, The PEM method takes the joint strength parameters c, φ and the safety factor as input and output variables. The results suggest that, the joints have a significant control effect on the deformation of the slope; The overall reliability of slope is great, and the failure probability is extremely low. Finally, the reliability results are verified by Monte Carlo method, and the results show that there is no significant difference between the two methods. The results indicate that the joints have good sensitivity to the stability of rock slope, and the point estimation method based on joint uncertainty is an effective method to analyze the slope reliability. |
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