| 用Gumbel极值分布推算气候极值的方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡基福,姜宏川,周庆满,林滋新.用Gumbel极值分布推算气候极值的方法[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),1993(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡基福 姜宏川 周庆满 林滋新 |
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| 作者单位： | 青岛海洋大学
(胡基福，姜宏川)，青岛市气象局
(周庆满)，青岛市气象局(林滋新) |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了用Gumbel极值分布理论推算气候极值的矩法、Thomas曲线公式和最小二乘法。并计算多年一遇的年最高气温、年最大均风速、年最大日降雨量和年最大波高。指出,变率小的要素极值再现期短;变率大的要素极值再现期长;Thomas曲线公式的计算结果较其它两种方法接近历史实况,且计算简便。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候极值 Gumbel极值分布 再现期 青岛地区 |
THE METHODS OF COMPUTING CLIMATIC EXTREMES USING GUMBEL EXTREMAL DISTRIBUTION |
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| Hu Jifu Jiang Hungchuan.THE METHODS OF COMPUTING CLIMATIC EXTREMES USING GUMBEL EXTREMAL DISTRIBUTION[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,1993(1). |
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| Authors: | Hu Jifu Jiang Hungchuan |
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| Institution: | Hu Jifu Jiang Hungchuan(Ocean University of Qingdao)Zhou Qingman Lin Zixin(Qingdao Meteorological Bureau) |
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| Abstract: | The moment method, the Thomas plot method and the least square method based on the Gumbel extremal distribution were systematically inttoduced and the maximum temperature, the maximum mean speed,the maximum daily precipitation and the maximum wave height that appear once in return period were calculated by using these methods. The results show that the return periods of the extremes of less variation ate short, while those of greater variation are long. The computed results of the Thomas plot are closer to historical actual cases as compared with others and the computation is relatively simple. |
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| Keywords: | Climatic extremes Gumbel extremal distribution return period Qingdao region |
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