Application of mechanical and statistical models to the study of seismicity of synthetic earthquakes and the prediction of natural ones |
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| Authors: | Yao-Lin Shi Jie Liu David Vere-Jones Jian-Cang Zhuang and Li Ma |
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| Institution: | (1) Graduate School, University of Science and Technology of China, 100039 Beijing, China;(2) Center for Analysis and Prediction, State Seismological Bureau, 100036 Beijing, China;(3) Institute of Statistics and Operation Research, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand |
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| Abstract: | Based on a cellular automata model, which obeys rules produced by a spring-damper-slider model of fault network, a synthetic
earthquake catalog of deterministic chaos can be produced. It is a challenge to inverse the model parameters and predict the
synthetic earthquakes from the synthetic catalog. We apply an improved statistical model of coupled stress release to the
synthetic catalog, it does successfully inverse the stress evolution of the system, but effectively prediction of the earthquakes
from the stresses remains a problem.
This research is partially supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation and Asian 2000 Foundation of New
Zealand. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake tectonic stress cellular automata model of coupled stress release |
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