Holocene annual mean temperature changes in Estonia and their relationship to solar insolation and atmospheric circulation patterns |
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| Authors: | Heikki Seppä Anneli Poska |
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| Institution: | a Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE-752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
b Institute of Geology, Tallinn Technical University, Estonia pst. 7, 10143 Tallinn, Estonia |
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| Abstract: | We reconstructed annual mean temperature (Tann) trends from three radiocarbon-dated Holocene pollen stratigraphies from lake sediments in Estonia, northern Europe. The reconstructions were carried out using a North-European pollen-climate calibration model based on weighted averaging partial least-squares regression. The cross-validated prediction error of the model is 0.89°C and the coefficient of determination between observed modern Tann values and those predicted by the model is 0.88. In the reconstruction, the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) is distinguishable at 8000-4500 cal yr B.P., with the expansion of thermophilous tree species and Tann on average 2.5°C higher than at present. The pollen-stratigraphical data reflect progressively warmer and drier summers during the HTM. Analogously with the modern decadal-scale climatic variability in North Europe, we interpret this as an indication of increasing climatic continentality due to the intensification of anticyclonic circulation and meridional air flow. Post-HTM cooling started abruptly at around 4500 cal yr B.P. All three reconstructions show a transient (ca. 300 years) cooling of 1.5-2.0°C at 8600-8000 cal yr B.P. We tentatively correlate this cold event with the North-Atlantic “8.2 ka event” at 8400-8000 cal yr B.P. Provided that the 8.2 ka event was caused by freshening of the North-Atlantic surface water, our data provide evidence of the climatic and vegetational responsiveness of the boundary of the temperate and boreal zones to the weakening of the North-Atlantic thermohaline circulation and the zonal energy transport over Europe. No other cold events of comparable magnitude are indicated during the last 8000 years. |
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| Keywords: | Estonia annual mean temperature calibration set Holocene thermal maximum 8 2 ka event pollen stratigraphy |
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