| DEMETER耦合气候模式对西北太平洋纬向风 |
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| 引用本文： | 林美静,范可.DEMETER耦合气候模式对西北太平洋纬向风[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(6):793-803. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林美静 范可 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东省中山市气象局, 中山528400;中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢－南森国际研究中心, 北京100029;中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢－南森国际研究中心, 北京100029;中国科学院气候变化研究中心, 北京100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY200906018;国家自然科学基金 41175071;中山市科技计划项目20114A203 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章评估耦合气候模式预测台风季节(6～10月)西北太平洋纬向风垂直切变幅度(MWS)的年际变化能力,分析显示欧洲多模式集合气候预测系统计划(DEMETER)中耦合模式数据基本具有回报MWS基本空间分布特征的能力,而回报MWS空间能力的不足区域与模式回报MWS与西北太平洋年台风数(WNPTF)的虚假显著相关区域相一致。过程中还显示西北太平洋低纬海区MWS与WNPTF正(负)相关,而强El Niño年时该海区MWS对应正(负)异常,强La Niña年时则相反;这意味着在台风季节,强El Niño年的WNPTF容易比强La Niña年的WNPTF偏多。在考察MWS的时间变异特征时,将MWS区域平均时间序列(MWS_T)和MWS的EOF第一特征向量对应的时间系数(MWS_PC1)定义为纬向风垂直切变指数,讨论指数与WNPTF、强ENSO间的关系。分析显示,MWS_T(MWS_PC1)分别与Niño3.4指数、WNPTF 显著相关,模式集合较好地再现了这种特征;但对强ENSO信号的响应,两个指数在ERA-40数据中是相反的,而在模式集合中却是一致的。
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| 关 键 词： | 纬向风垂直切变幅度 DEMETER 回报 西北太平洋 ENSO |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/5/14 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/10/10 0:00:00 |
Prediction Capability of Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models in the DEMETER Program to the Magnitude of Vertical Zonal Wind Shear in the Western North Pacific |
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| LIN Meijing and FAN Ke.Prediction Capability of Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models in the DEMETER Program to the Magnitude of Vertical Zonal Wind Shear in the Western North Pacific[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2013,18(6):793-803. |
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| Authors: | LIN Meijing and FAN Ke |
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| Institution: | Zhongshan Meteorological Office, Zhongshan 528400;Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
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| Abstract: | This study investigates the capability of coupled climate models to predict the interannual variability of the magnitude of vertical zonal wind shear (MWS) in "typhoon season" (from June to October). Seven coupled ocean-atmosphere models used in the DEMETER program have reasonable ability to predict the spatial pattern of the MWS anomalies; however, prediction of false significantly correlated regions between MWS and western North Pacific Typhoon frequency (WNPTF) appears to be their major drawback. MWS has been shown to be positively (negatively) correlated with WNPTF in the low-latitude western North Pacific where significant positive (negative) anomaly of MWS is observed in strong El Niño years, implying that WNPTF in strong El Niño years is more than that in strong La Niña years. The trend is opposite in strong La Niña years. For studying the temporal characteristics, time series of regional average MWS (MWS_T) and time coefficient of the first model form EOF analysis of MWS (MWS_PC1) are defined as MWS indexes. Analyses show that MWS_T and MWS_PC1 are positively correlated with Niño 3.4 index and WNPTF, respectively. A multimodel ensemble (MME) shows significant potential to capture this temporal characteristic. However, the responses of the two MWS indexes to the impact of ENSO are opposite, which cannot be predicted completely by the MME. |
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| Keywords: | Magnitude of vertical zonal wind shear DEMETER Hindcast Western North Pacific ENSO |
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