An example of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change |
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| Authors: | DJ Karoly JA Cohen GA Meehl JFB Mitchell AH Oort RJ Stouffer RT Wetherald |
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| Institution: | (1) Centre for Dynamical Meteorology, Monash University, 3168 Clayton, VIC, Australia;(2) National Center for Atmospheric Research, 80307 Boulder, CO, USA;(3) Meteorological Office, RG12 2SZ Bracknell, UK;(4) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton University, 08542 Princeton, NJ, USA |
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| Abstract: | As an example of the technique of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change, a multivariate signal or fingerprint of the enhanced greenhouse effect is defined using the zonal mean atmospheric temperature change as a function of height and latitude between equilibrium climate model simulations with control and doubled CO2 concentrations. This signal is compared with observed atmospheric temperature variations over the period 1963 to 1988 from radiosonde-based global analyses. There is a significant increase of this greenhouse signal in the observational data over this period.These results must be treated with caution. Upper air data are available for a short period only, possibly too short to be able to resolve any real greenhouse climate change. The greenhouse fingerprint used in this study may not be unique to the enhanced greenhouse effect and may be due to other forcing mechanisms. However, it is shown that the patterns of atmospheric temperature change associated with uniform global increases of sea surface temperature, with El NinoSouthern Oscillation events and with decreases of stratospheric ozone concentrations individually are different from the greenhouse fingerprint used here. |
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