Modelling the response of glaciers to climate change by applying volume-area scaling in combination with a high resolution GCM |
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| Authors: | R S W Van de Wal M Wild |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands E-mail: wal@phys.uu.nl, NL;(2) Institute for Climate Research, ETH, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Wintherthürerstrasse 190, CH-8057 Zürich, Switzerland, CH |
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| Abstract: | A seasonally and regionally differentiated glacier model is used to estimate the contribution that glaciers are likely to
make to global sea level rise over a period of 70 years. A high resolution general circulation model (ECHAM4 T106) is used
to estimate temperature and precipitation changes for a doubled CO2 climate and serves as input for the glacier model. Volume-area relations are used to take into account the reduction of glacier
area resulting from greenhouse warming. Each glacieriated region has a specified glacier size distribution, defined by the
number of glaciers in a size class and a mean area. Changes in glacier volume are calculated by a precipitation dependent
mass balance sensitivity. The model predicts a global sea level rise of 57 mm over a period of 70 years. This corresponds
to a sensitivity of 0.86 mm yr−1K−1. Assuming a constant glacier area as done in earlier work leads to an overestimation of 19% for the contribution to sea level
rise.
Received: 16 August 2000 / Accepted: 21 May 2001 |
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