| 基于海洋溢油溯源数值模拟方法的长岛保护区污染风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈勤思,胡松,魏永亮.基于海洋溢油溯源数值模拟方法的长岛保护区污染风险分析[J].海洋通报,2023(6):707-714. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈勤思 胡松 魏永亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海海洋大学海洋生态系统与环境实验室;2. 上海海洋大学海洋科学学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划子课题（2021YFC3101702）； |
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| 摘 要： | 渤海海域油气开发和输运活动频繁，溢油风险源较多，无主漂油事件时有发生。本文采用海洋溢油溯源数值模拟方法对山东长岛国家级自然保护区（即长岛保护区）进行了污染风险分析。利用非结构有限体积法海洋模式（Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model,FVCOM）模拟了渤海海域的潮流，结合欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA5风场资料，通过一次真实溢油事故的后报验证方法的有效性。将该方法应用在长岛保护区的溯源模拟中，评估月平均统计条件下保护区整体污染危害风险。研究表明，溯源数值模拟方法可以提供对保护区造成危害的溢油来源区域及溢油对保护区造成污染影响的概率等信息，可为保护区相关工作提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 海洋溢油 溯源 FVCOM 风险分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/5/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/9/5 0:00:00 |
Pollution risk analysis of Changdao Nature Reserve based on the marine oil spill backtracking method |
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| CHEN Qinsi,HU Song,WEI Yongliang.Pollution risk analysis of Changdao Nature Reserve based on the marine oil spill backtracking method[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2023(6):707-714. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Qinsi HU Song WEI Yongliang |
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| Institution: | Marine Ecosystem & Environmental Laboratory, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China; College of Marine Science, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China |
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| Abstract: | Oil and gas development and transport activities are frequent in Bohai Sea area, and there are many oil spill risk sources, and mystery spills occur from time to time. This study analyzes the risk of oil spill pollution in Changdao National Nature Reserve by using the backtracking method. The FVCOM is used to simulate the tidal current in Bohai Sea. Combined with ECMWF ERA5 wind data, the effectiveness of backtracking method is calibrated by hindcast of a real oil spill accident. The method is applied to the simulation of Changdao Nature Reserve to evaluate the overall oil spill pollution risks of the study area under the condition of monthly average statistics. The results show that the backtracking method can provide the information of the oil spill source area and the pollution probability, which can provide reference for the related work of the reserve. |
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| Keywords: | marine oil spill backtracking FVCOM risk analysis |
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