| 1993—2016年中国近海海平面时空变化趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 张成卓,郭景松,曹小群,薛宇欢.1993—2016年中国近海海平面时空变化趋势[J].海洋科学进展,2021,39(2):187-196. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张成卓 郭景松 曹小群 薛宇欢 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科技大学 气象海洋学院,湖南 长沙 4100732;国防科技大学 计算机学院,湖南 长沙 4100732;自然资源部 第一海洋研究所,山东 青岛 266061;青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室 区域海洋动力学与数值模拟功能实验室,山东 青岛 266061;国防科技大学 气象海洋学院,湖南 长沙 4100732 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目——海洋上层混合过程参数化及实验验证(2016YFC1401403)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 区域海平面变化是目前气候变化研究的热点问题。海平面变化具有时间和空间的异质性,分析海平面变化,应充分考虑时间和空间的差异。基于集合经验模态分解(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD)、最小二乘法,利用卫星高度计、验潮站数据,分析了1993—2016年间中国近海及周边海域海平面的时空变化规律。利用EEMD,计算了1993—2016年中国近海海平面变化空间结构的时间变化规律。结果表明中国近海海平面持续升高,但海平面变化在空间分布和时间上的变化并不均匀。空间结构大致分三个部分:大陆沿岸海平面持续上升且上升速率逐年增加,近海海区升高速率逐年降低,而研究区域内的西太平洋西部海区先减速升高又加速降低。分别利用EEMD分解和线性最小二乘拟合算法计算了1993—2016年中国近海海平面平均上升速率的空间分布,结果表明两种方法得到的海平面升高速率的空间分布大致吻合。两种方法均显示沿海地区的上升速率远大于近海海区,沿海地区上升速率大约为6 mm/a,近海海区上升速率大约为2 mm/a。但EEMD方法显示在广东沿岸和靠近赤道部分区域的上升速率更大。分别计算了大陆沿岸、近海及西太平洋西部海区三个海区内空间平均的海平面时间变化的线性及非线性趋势。非线性趋势显示大陆沿岸海区海平面加速上升,上升速率由1993年的3.65 mm/a,增加到2016年的5.03 mm/a;近海地区海平面上升速率逐年变小,由1993年的4.51 mm/a,减缓至2016年的3.8 mm/a;西太平洋西部海区海平面先减速上升,后加速下降,从1993年的上升率为9.5 mm/a,逐渐变化到2016年的下降率为2.27 mm/a。利用验潮站数据分析了大连、坎门、香港的水位变化,除大连海平面上升速率降低外,其余均显示海平面上升速度逐年升高,和卫星高度计的结果吻合。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合经验模态分解 中国近海 海平面变化 非线性趋势 |
Spatial-temporal Variation of the Sea Level in Adjacent Seas of China From 1993 to 2016 |
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| ZHANG Cheng-zhuo,GUO Jing-song,CAO Xiao-qun,XUE Yu-huan.Spatial-temporal Variation of the Sea Level in Adjacent Seas of China From 1993 to 2016[J].Advances in Marine Science,2021,39(2):187-196. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Cheng-zhuo GUO Jing-song CAO Xiao-qun XUE Yu-huan |
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| Institution: | (College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China;School of Computer Science,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China;First Institute of Oceanography,MNR,Qingdao 266061,China;Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao),Qingdao,266061,China) |
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| Abstract: | Regional sea level change is one of key topics of the climate research.The sea level change is usually inhomogeneous in spatial distribution or temporal variation,thus it is important to take both of them into account in the analysis of the sea level change.Based on the AVISO altimetry data and the tide gauge data,the spatial-temporal change of sea level in the adjacent Seas of China during 1993—2016 are studied using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD)and the Least Square method(LS).Results indicate a continuous but spatially and temporally inhomogeneous increase in sea level.Three patterns of the sea level change are identified:the rate of sea level rise in coastal waters has been increasing between 1993 and 2016,while that in offshore area has been decreasing;in the area to the west of the Pacific,the sea level change trend is transformed from rising to descending.The spatial distribution of the mean rate of sea level change over 1993—2016 derived by EEMD and LS algorithms illustrate that the change rate along the coast(6 mm/a)is much higher than that off the coast(2 mm/a),although less differences exist along Guangzhou coast and tropical areas.For comparison,linear and non-linear trends of spatially averaged sea level change in coastal areas,offshore and part of the West Pacific are calculated,and the the non-linear trend shows that the spatially-mean sea level rise rate in coastal areas has accelerated from 3.65 mm/a in 1993 to 5.03 mm/a in 2016;the offshore sea level rise rate has gradually decreased from 4.51 mm/a in 1993 to 3.8 mm/a in 2016;while in the areas to the West Pacific the sea level rise rate decelerated from 9.5 mm/a in 1993 and to a declining rate of 2.27 mm/a in 2016.To verify the consistency,the tide gauge data at Dalian,Kanmen and Hong Kong were also decomposed using EEMD,and the results are in good agreement with the AVISO results except Dalian where the sea level rise rate decreased. |
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| Keywords: | Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition adjacent seas of China sea level change non-linear trend |
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