| 用CEOF分析近百年中国东部旱涝的分布及其年际变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏凤英,李晓东.用CEOF分析近百年中国东部旱涝的分布及其年际变化特征[J].应用气象学报,1995,6(4):454-460. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏凤英 李晓东 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国气象科学研究院，北京大学地球物理系 |
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| 基金项目： | “短期气候预测理论和方法的研究”及“长期天气预报理论和人法研究”项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过1850～1991年旱涝百分率的CEOF分析，研究了近百年来中国东部旱涝的分布特征、时空变化特点及年际演变规律。结果表明，我国东部主要有三种旱涝分布类型。第一种类型是以长江流域为中心全国大范围旱或涝，空间位相近似相同，且有10.7年和3.1年周期性变化，振幅强度在1923～1924年间曾发生过增强突变。第二种类型为南北旱涝趋势相反的分布，空间位相自北向南变化显著，且有4.3年周期性变化，振幅强度在1884～1885年间曾有一次减弱突变。第三种类型呈江淮流域与华北和华南旱涝趋势相反的分布，空间位相从南北两个方向向中间或相反方向移动，并有3.4年周期性变化，振幅强度在1911～1912年有过增强突变。
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| 关 键 词： | CEOF 中国东部旱涝 周期 突变 |
A CEOF Analysis on Distribution and Interannual Variation of Drought and Flood in China During the Last 100 Years |
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| Wei Fengying,Zhang Xiangong.A CEOF Analysis on Distribution and Interannual Variation of Drought and Flood in China During the Last 100 Years[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1995,6(4):454-460. |
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| Authors: | Wei Fengying Zhang Xiangong |
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| Institution: | 1.1) (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081); 2) (Peking University, Beijing 100871) |
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| Abstract: | By using the complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis, the spatial and temporal distribution and interannual variation of drought and flood in the east of China in 1850~1991 are investigated. It is found that there are mainly three distribution types of drought and flood in summer of China. In the first type, drought or flood appears in most areas of China around the Changjiang valley, their spatial phases are approximately the same, and there are 10.7 and 3.1 year periodic changes, respectively. There occurred abrupt increase in the time-amplitude during 1923~1924. The second one is the distribution which of drought and flood in the north of China is opposite to that in the south of China, the change of spatial phase from north to south is remarkable, and there are 4.3 year periodic change. There occurred abrupt decrease during 1884~1885. The third one is the distribution which alone the Changjiang and Huaihe valley is opposite to that in North China and Sorth China, the spatial phase moves toward both from north and south to medium or to their reverse direction, respectively, and there are 3.4 year periodic change. The abrupt increase occurred during 1911~1912. |
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| Keywords: | CEOF Drought and flood in the east of China Period Abrupt change |
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