| 黄河流域降雨侵蚀力对全球变化的响应 |
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| 引用本文： | 张光辉.黄河流域降雨侵蚀力对全球变化的响应[J].山地学报,2005,23(4):420-424. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张光辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京林业大学水土保持与荒漠化教育部重点实验室,北京,100083;北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京,100875 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目（40235056）、教育部重点实验室基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析土壤侵蚀力对全球变化的响应,有助于国家和区域未来水土保持宏观战略的决策.本文利用Had-CM3模型,在A2和B2情景下系统研究了未来不同时期（2020年、2050年和2080年）黄河流域降雨侵蚀力的潜在变化.结果表明在全球气候变化条件下,黄河流域的降雨侵蚀力有显著的增加;增加的幅度随着GCM情景和研究时期的不同而不同,从南向北逐渐增大;A2情景下,黄河流域的降雨侵蚀力分别增加11.5%（2020年）、24.8%（2050年）和40.6%（2080年）,B2情景下的相应变化分别为20.9%、12.5%和20.8%;加强中、长期土地利用规划、植被建设和水土保持是应对全球变化的基本方略.
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| 关 键 词： | 土壤侵蚀 降雨侵蚀力 气候变化 GCM模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-2786（2005）04-420-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-04-20 |
Response of Rainfall Erosivity to Climate Change in Yellow River Basin |
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| ZHANG Guanghui.Response of Rainfall Erosivity to Climate Change in Yellow River Basin[J].Journal of Mountain Research,2005,23(4):420-424. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Guanghui |
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| Abstract: | Rainfall erosivity can be expected to change in correspondence to changes in climate. It is helpful for national and regional decision of soil and water conservation strategy to analyse the response of soil erosion to global climate change. This study was conducted to assess the potential effects of climate change on rainfall erosivity in Yellow River basin under HadCM3 A2 and B2 scenarios for the periods of 2020, 2050, and 2080. The results showed a notable increase in rainfall erosivity for both scenario A2 and B2 across Yellow River basin except for a small area of decrease in southwestern for scenario B2 at 2050. The range of erosivity increase varied from scenario to scenario, and varied from period to period. The general trend of the range of changes in erosivity increased from south to north. The increases in rainfall erosivity of Yellow River basin were 11.5%, 24.8%, and 40.6% for scenario A2 and 20.9%, 12.5%, and 20.8% for scenario B2 by the year of 2020, 2050, and 2080 respectively. For six sub - regions of Yellow River basin, the changes in rainfall erosivity varied from 3.0 to 58.7% for scenario A2 and varied from 5.1 to 29.4% for scenario B2. More efforts should be made for land use planning, vegetation management, and soil conservation in the coming century. |
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| Keywords: | Soil erosion rainfall erosivity climate change GCM model |
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