| 超长桩承载力的灰色优化-马尔柯夫预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙林柱,王铁成,杨芳.超长桩承载力的灰色优化-马尔柯夫预测模型[J].岩土力学,2006,27(3):423-427. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙林柱 王铁成 杨芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.天津大学 建筑工程学院，天津 300072；2.温州大学 建筑与土木工程学院，温州 325025 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高模型预测的精度，根据灰色理论，建立超长桩承载力的非等步长灰色微分方程，得到了微分方程的精确解。基于优化理论，建立误差目标函数。利用最小二乘法，直接求得微分方程的系统参数，得到灰色优化模型。以此模型为基础划分n个状态，应用Markov原理，通过计算状态的一步转移概率矩阵，建立了灰色优化-马尔柯夫预测模型。使用该模型预测超长桩的承载力，预测值和试验值吻合较好，与GM(1,1)模型、灰色优化模型相比，预测精度进一步提高，为超长桩承载力的预测提供了新的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 超长桩 荷载-位移曲线 灰色优化-马尔柯夫模型 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7598-（2006）03-0423-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-10-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-10-252005-02-25 |
Gray optimizing - Markov predicating model on bearing capacity of overlength piles |
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| SUN Lin-zhu,WANG Tie-cheng,YANG Fang.Gray optimizing - Markov predicating model on bearing capacity of overlength piles[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2006,27(3):423-427. |
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| Authors: | SUN Lin-zhu WANG Tie-cheng YANG Fang |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; 2. School of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on gray theory,an unequal step length gray differential equation was presented to describe bearing capacity of overlength piles,and obtain its accurate solution.Error objective function was created based on optimization theory,further used least squares method to get the system parameters of the differential equation.In order to improve the accuracy of model,according to Markov theory,dividing the test value of gray optimizing model into n kinds of states based on predicating fitting curve,and getting one-step transfer matrix to forecast bearing capacity of overlength piles.The predication results show that the gray optimizing-Markov model based on the load-settlement curve can improve the precision of prediction compared with GM(1,1) model and gray optimizing model.A new way is provided for the predication of bearing capacity of overlength piles. |
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| Keywords: | overlength piles load-settlement curve gray optimizing-Markov model prediction |
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