| R／S AND WAVELET ANALYSIS ON EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC DISPARITY IN CHINA DURING PAST 50 YEARS |
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| 基金项目： | Under the auspices of National Philosophy and Social Sciences Foundation of China (No. 00BJL051，03BJL027) |
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| 摘 要： | 1INTRODUCTIONThere have been many literatures about the regional disparity of economic development in China since the late 1970s. Some scholars argue that disparity of re-gional development in China has been expanded since 1978, but others find it has reduced since 1978. The findings of some scholars show that the evolutionary process of the disparity of regional economic develop-ment in China follows the inverted U shape, but some others do not think so. What is the true tendency, and i…
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| 关 键 词： | 区域经济发展 经济差异 统计学 小波分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 8 October 2003 |
R/S and wavelet analysis on evolutionary process of regional economic disparity in China during past 50 years |
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| Authors: | Xu Jian-hua Lu Yan Su Fang-lin Ai Nan-shan |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Geography, East China Normal University, 200062 Shanghai, P. R. China;(2) Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101 Beijing, P. R. China;(3) School of Environment & Water Conservancy, Zhengzhou University, 450052 Zhengzhou, P. R. China;(4) Architecture & Environment College, Sichuan University, 610065 Chengdu, P. R. China |
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| Abstract: | This paper shows the dynamic process of regional disparity of economic development in China in the past 50 years from a new
insight by using the rescaled range statistic (R/S) analysis and wavelet analysis of the Theil index sequence with different
time scales. The main conclusions are: 1) The regional disparity of economic development in China, including the inter-provincial
disparity, inter-regional disparity and intra-regional disparity, has existed for many years. Theil index by the comparative
price has revealed the true trend for comparative disparity of regional economic development from 1952 to 2000. 2) Decomposition
of Theil index indicates that the dynamic trend of comparative inter-provincial disparity in the coastal region is in line
with dynamic trend of inter-provincial disparity in the whole China. 3) The R/S analysis results tell us that during 1966–1978,
the Hurst exponent H=0.504≈0.5, which indicates that in that period the evolution of comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development
showed a random characteristic, and in the other periods, i.e. 1952–1965, 1979–1990 and 1991–2000, the Hurst exponent H>0.5, which indicates that in those periods the evolution of the comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development
in China had a long-enduring characteristic. 4) By using wavelet analysis at different time scale, we arrived at a conclusion
that the evolutionary process of the disparity of economic development of China is not a simple inverted U shape but a compound
of several U shapes. The result tells us that the evolutionary plot of inter-provincial disparity in China follows the inverted
U on the whole at the higher scale, 24 (16 years). That is to say, the disparity tends to rise in the first stage of economic development, and fall slowly over
the peak in the second stage of economic development. However, if we shorten the time scale to 23 (8 years), then a link of several U shapes will appear.
Foundation item: Under the auspices of National Philosophy and Social Sciences Foundation of China (No. 00BJL051, 03BJL027)
Biography: XU Jian-hua (1965–), male, a native of Heshui County of Gansu Province, professor, specialized in GIS and Geo-computation.
E-mail: Jhxu@geo.ecnu.edu.cn |
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| Keywords: | China regional economic disparity Theil index R/S analysis wavelet analysis |
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