Improving the prediction of extreme FPSO hawser tension,using another highly correlated hawser tension with a longer time record |
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| Institution: | 1. Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang, China;2. Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, USA;3. Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway;1. Centre for Ships and Ocean Structures, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway;2. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway;1. Faculty of Vehicle Engineering and Mechanics, State Key Laboratory of Structural Analysis of Industrial Equipment, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China;2. School of Ocean Science and Technology, Dalian University of Technology, Panjin, 124000, China;3. China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) Research Institute, Tianjin, 100027, China;4. Computer Science and Technology College, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China;1. Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang, China;2. Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway;3. Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, USA;1. Harbin Engineering University, China;2. Marine Hydrodynamics Laboratory, University of Michigan, United States;3. Jiangsu Maritime Institute, China |
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| Abstract: | The floating production storage and offloading unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport. Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during the FPSO offloading operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during certain sea conditions, posing an operational risk. In this paper, the finite element method (FEM) software ANSYS AQWA has been employed to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions.In some practical situations, it would be useful to improve the accuracy of some statistical predictions based on a certain stochastic random process, given another synchronous highly correlated stochastic process that has been measured for a longer time, than the process of interest. In this paper, the issue of improving extreme value prediction has been addressed. In other words, an efficient transfer of information is necessary between two synchronous, highly correlated stochastic processes. Two such highly correlated FPSO hawser tension processes were simulated in order to test the efficiency of the proposed technique. |
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| Keywords: | Floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) Monte Carlo SBS offloading Bivariate statistics Quadratic transfer function (QTF) FEM |
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