|
|||||
|
|
| 基于Molchan图表法的新疆流体资料预报效能检验 | |
| 引用本文： | 向阳,孙小龙,王博.基于Molchan图表法的新疆流体资料预报效能检验[J].地震,2018,38(3):103-114. |
| 作者姓名： | 向阳 孙小龙 王博 |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国地震局地壳应力研究所, 地壳动力学重点实验室, 北京 100085; 2.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011; 3.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045 |
| 基金项目： | 中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2016010306)资助 |
| 摘 要： | 通过三组具有代表性的数据(新04泉氢气原始数据、 新10泉水氡趋势提取数据、 新43泉气氡差分数据)检验实例, 介绍了如何用Molchan图表法进行检验和分析。 基于Molchan图表法对新疆地区地下流体预报效能评估等级较高的测项进行检验, 不仅可以直观地反应预报效能, 对观测资料进行评估, 又能对异常进行定量分析, 得到最佳阈值所对应的异常识别指标, 并在此基础上, 提取相对应的地震预测预报指标。 结果显示, 新疆地区地下流体各测项对于不同构造带上的地震预报效能各不相同, 分布在乌鲁木齐附近及天山以北地区的测项, 对北天山发生的地震预报效能较好, 多数测项优势对应时间段为短期, 说明短期预测效果较好。 |
| 关 键 词： | 地下流体 预报效能 Molchan图表法 新疆地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-02-14 |
Earthquake Prediction Efficiency Testing of Observed Fluid Data in Xinjiang using Molchan Diagram Method |
|
| XIANG Yang,SUN Xiao-long,WANG Bo.Earthquake Prediction Efficiency Testing of Observed Fluid Data in Xinjiang using Molchan Diagram Method[J].Earthquake,2018,38(3):103-114. | |
| Authors: | XIANG Yang SUN Xiao-long WANG Bo |
| Institution: | 1.Institute of Crustal Dynamics, CEA, Beijing 100085, China; 2.Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China; 3.China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China |
| Abstract: | Molchan diagram method can not only evaluate the prediction efficiency of the observation data, but also quantitatively analyze the anomalies in data to obtain the anomaly identification index corresponding to the optimal threshold value. Based on three groups of representative data, new hydrogen raw data in Xin04 spring, water radon trend data in Xin10 spring and gas radon difference data in Xin43 spring, we introduced how to use the Molchan diagram method to analyze the prediction efficiency of observation data. Then, we analyzed the prediction efficiency of the fluid data with better efficiency in Xinjiang, and the earthquake prediction indexes were extracted. The results show that the earthquake prediction efficiency of fluid data in Xinjiang is different for different tectonic zones. The data of observation point distributed around Urumqi and North of Tianshan have better prediction efficiency for those earthquakes occurred in North Tianshan, and most of the data correspond to the short period predicted time, which indicates that the data could be used for the short-term earthquake prediction. |
| Keywords: | Earthquake prediction efficiency Underground fluid Molchan diagram method Xinjiang region |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《地震》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《地震》下载免费的PDF全文 | |