| 中国地区极端事件预估研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 高学杰.中国地区极端事件预估研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(3):162-166. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高学杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局 国家气候中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 简要介绍了极端气候事件预估的基本方法，概述了东亚和中国地区关于气候和极端气候事件预估研究的进展。针对极端事件变化预估研究中的重要问题，如高分辨率、长时间尺度的区域气候变化模拟和预估，高时空分辨率的网格化观测资料，除温室效应外的土地利用和气溶胶的作用，使用合理方法进行多模式结果的集合，以及统计降尺度方法的应用等，进行了讨论。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 气候模式 极端事件 预估 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-1719（2007）03-0162-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-2-6 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-02-062007-03-15 |
Researches in Projection of Extreme Events in China |
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| Gao Xuejie.Researches in Projection of Extreme Events in China[J].Advances in Climate Change,2007,3(3):162-166. |
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| Authors: | Gao Xuejie |
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| Institution: | National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,we review basic methods for projecting possible future changes in extreme events,with an emphasis on the analysis of output from high resolution climate models.Current and past research on extreme events in East Asia and China are discussed and the projections for China are summarized,including existing problems in these projections.It is pointed out that further studies in the following areas are needed in order to better project future extreme events over China:higher spatial and temporal resolution gridded observational data,extended high resolution regional climate model simulations,multi-model ensembles,and the application of statistical downscaling. In addition,the effects of land use and atmospheric aerosols must be considered in model simulations. |
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| Keywords: | climate change climate model extreme events projection China region |
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