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强震地面断裂评估的概率分析研究
引用本文:马东辉,李刚,孙平善.强震地面断裂评估的概率分析研究[J].世界地震工程,2005,21(1):7-11.
作者姓名:马东辉  李刚  孙平善
作者单位:1. 清华大学,土木工程系,北京,100084;北京工业大学,抗震减灾研究所,北京,100022
2. 北京工业大学,抗震减灾研究所,北京,100022
3. 中国地震局工程力学研究所,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150080
摘    要:概述了国内外强震地面断裂的研究现状,系统总结整理了我国历史强震地面断裂的有关资料,对1900年以来我国大陆发生的340次6级以上强震的地面断裂作了统计分析,绘制了强震地面断裂的震级频度曲线。指出了我国当前定数评估强震地面断裂影响的不足,探索了强震地面断裂影响的概率评估方法,建议并讨论了需要考虑场地强震地面断裂影响的概率水平。

关 键 词:地面  强震  断裂评估  概率分析  场地  曲线  绘制  震级  频度  资料
文章编号:1007-6069(2005)01-0007-05

Probability analysis on the estimation of ground ruptures induced by strong earthquakes
MA Dong-hui,LI Gang,SUN Ping-shan.Probability analysis on the estimation of ground ruptures induced by strong earthquakes[J].World Information On Earthquake Engineering,2005,21(1):7-11.
Authors:MA Dong-hui  LI Gang  SUN Ping-shan
Institution:MA Dong-hui~
Abstract:In this paper, the study situation of seismic ground ruptures is summarized. Based on the data of historical strong earthquakes in China, the seismic ground ruptures occurred in 340 events with magnitude over 6 in China mainland since 1900 are analyzed statistically, and the magnitude-frequency curve of the seismic ground ruptures is obtained. It is pointed out that the current deterministic estimation on the effects of the seismic ground ruptures is insufficient. Finally, the simple probabilistic estimation method of seismic rupture effects is studied and the relevant probability level needed be considered for sites is discussed.
Keywords:strong earthquake  ground rupture  probability estimation
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