| 河南省粮食生产与耕地变化的分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李玉平.河南省粮食生产与耕地变化的分析及预测[J].地域研究与开发,2007,26(3):95-98,103. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李玉平 |
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| 作者单位： | 邢台学院,地理系,河北,邢台,054001 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用Excel软件,在分析河南省改革开放以来耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上,分析了最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的变化特点;运用预测理论对未来15年耕地、人口、粮食、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测.研究结果显示:1978年以来,虽然河南省人均耕地面积持续减少,但由于耕地生产率不断提高,粮食产量和人均占有量却在持续增加,最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈现降低的趋势.未来15年最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数将进一步降低.可见,依靠增加投入和科技进步从而不断提高耕地生产率,是减轻耕地压力、保证粮食安全生产的根本途径.
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| 关 键 词： | 粮食生产 耕地变化 最小人均耕地面积 耕地压力指数 河南省 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-2363（2007）03-0095-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-122007-03-09 |
Analysis and Prediction of Grain Production and Cropland Change in Henan Province |
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| LI Yu-ping.Analysis and Prediction of Grain Production and Cropland Change in Henan Province[J].Areal Research and Development,2007,26(3):95-98,103. |
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| Authors: | LI Yu-ping |
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| Institution: | Department of Geography, Xingtai Institute, Xingtai 054001, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper,helped by Excel software and based on the analysis of dynamic fluctuation of cropland,population and grain output since Henan Province opened to the outside world,analyzes variant characteristics of minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland.Adopting the predictive theory,it also makes a prediction of its population,grain output and minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland in the coming 15 years with the following research result: since 1978,although cropland acreage per capita has been on the decrease against the boost of cropland productivity,grain output and per capita quota has been on the increase,with the tendency of decrease in minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland.The coming 15 years will see a continuous decrease in minimum cropland acreage per capita and pressure index on cropland.Hence,it is the only fundamental channel to rely on increasing investment and scientific advancement,boost cropland productivity,alleviate cropland pressure and guarantee grain production. |
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| Keywords: | grain production cropland change minimum cropland acreage per capita pressure index on cropland Henan Province |
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