| 基于CWRF模式夏季日降水量的订正技术对比 |
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| 引用本文： | 李欣韵,余锦华,梁信忠.基于CWRF模式夏季日降水量的订正技术对比[J].热带气象学报,2019,35(6):842-851. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李欣韵 余锦华 梁信忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划“重大自然灾害监测预警与防范”重点专项2018YFC1505804国家重点研发计划“重大自然灾害监测预警与防范”重点专项2018YFC1507704国家自然科学基金41575083国家气候中心中国精细化区域气候预测系统研发项目NCC2016013南京大气科学联合研究中心北极阁开放研究基金NJCAR2016ZD03 |
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| 摘 要： | 误差订正是提高模式模拟和预报性能的有效方法。基于CWRF(regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model)25套不同物理参数化方案的日降水量模拟资料, 对比仅进行降水日数订正(OCD)、仅进行降水量订正(OCM)和先订正降水日数再订正降水量(COR)三种订正方法, 先订正再等权重集成和先等权重集成再订正两种订正思路, 重点对1997—2015年华中和华南地区夏季日降水进行订正效果的对比。结果表明:(1)降水日的订正是必要的, 综合而言COR方法对CWRF模式日降水的订正效果更佳, 尤其是小量级降水, 但降水强度的表现不如OCM; (2)先集成后订正的效果更好; (3) CWRF模式不同参数化方案对日降水的模拟能力有显著差别, 经过订正后模拟能力均有所提升, 但对于不同的模拟方案, 其订正效果也不同。表明, 误差订正确实能有效提高模式模拟及预报性能, 但其效果存在不确定性。提高模式的预报性能, 关键还是提高模式对真实大气动力学的表述能力。
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| 关 键 词： | CWRF模式 误差订正 分位数映射方法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-12-02 |
COMPARISON OF BIAS CORRECTION TECHNIQUES BASED ON CWRF MODEL FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION IN SUMMER |
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| LI Xin-yun,YU Jin-hua and LIANG Xin-zhong.COMPARISON OF BIAS CORRECTION TECHNIQUES BASED ON CWRF MODEL FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION IN SUMMER[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2019,35(6):842-851. |
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| Authors: | LI Xin-yun YU Jin-hua and LIANG Xin-zhong |
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| Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China2.Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, MD 20742, USA |
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| Abstract: | Error correction is an effective method to improve the performance of simulation and prediction in a model. Based on summer daily precipitation simulated by CWRF (regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model), focusing on central and southern China, the effectiveness of three correction methods including only corrected precipitation day (OCD), only corrected magnitude of precipitation (OCM) and corrected both (COR) as well as two schemes that correction before or after equal-weighted integration were compared in the paper. The result are as follows. (1) The correction of precipitation day is necessary. Compared with OCM, COR was better on the effect of CWRF daily precipitation correction, especially of smaller magnitude. (2) Equal-weighted integration before correction performed better. (3) Different parametric schemes of CWRF model have significant differences in the simulation ability of daily precipitation, and the simulation ability has been improved after the revision. The revision effect is different for different simulated schemes. The key to improve the prediction performance of CWRF is to improve the ability of the model to express real atmospheric dynamics. |
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| Keywords: | CWRF bias correction quantile mapping |
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