| 春季北大西洋三极型海温异常变化及其与NAO和ENSO的联系 |
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| 引用本文： | 李忠贤,于怡秋,邓伟涛,曾刚,吴玲玲.春季北大西洋三极型海温异常变化及其与NAO和ENSO的联系[J].气象科学,2019,39(6):721-730. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李忠贤 于怡秋 邓伟涛 曾刚 吴玲玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044,南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044,南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044,南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044,南京铁道职业技术学院 社会科学教学部, 南京 210031 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（41575102；41575085）；国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFA0603804）；江苏省高等学校自然科学研究项目（18KJB170008） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1951—2016年HadISST逐月海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)资料,NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及1958—2016年美国伍兹霍尔海洋研究所(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,WHOI)提供的OAFlux数据集,运用经验正交函数分解(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)和偏相关分析等统计方法,研究了春季北大西洋海温异常的主要特征及其与春季NAO和前期冬季ENSO联系。结果表明:春季北大西洋海温异常EOF的第一模态是自北而南出现的三极结构的海温距平型,其方差贡献率为35.7%。春季北大西洋三极型海温异常的形成主要受到春季NAO主导作用,还受到前期冬季热带中东太平洋海温异常的影响。消除前期冬季Niňo3.4的影响后,春季北大西洋三极型海温异常指数与同期北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)指数的偏相关系数分别为0.50,通过了99%置信度水平的显著性检验。消除春季NAO的影响后,春季北大西洋三极型海温异常指数与前期冬季Niňo3.4指数的偏相关系数为-0.26,通过了95%信度水平的显著性检验。春季NAO正(负)位相引起的海表风场和海表湍流热通量的异常,进而激发出正(负)位相的北大西洋三极型海温异常。前期冬季ENSO事件可以引起春季大气环流异常和热带外海温异常,进而调制春季NAO对北大西洋三极型海温异常的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 北大西洋海温 北大西洋涛动(NAO) ENSO 偏相关分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/10/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/12/10 0:00:00 |
Variation characteristics of North Atlantic tri-polar sea surface temperature in spring and its relationship with NAO and ENSO |
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| LI Zhongxian,YU Yiqiu,DENG Weitao,ZENG Gang and WU Lingling.Variation characteristics of North Atlantic tri-polar sea surface temperature in spring and its relationship with NAO and ENSO[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2019,39(6):721-730. |
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| Authors: | LI Zhongxian YU Yiqiu DENG Weitao ZENG Gang and WU Lingling |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China and Department of Social Sciences, Nanjing Institution of Railway Technology, Nanjing 210031, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data form the monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data of HadISST from 1951 to 2016, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution(WHOI) form 1958-2016, and statistical methods such as Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and partial correlation analysis, the main characteristics of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) in spring and their association with the spring NAO and previously winter ENSO are studied. The results show that the first mode of EOF in spring exhibits a meridional tri-polar pattern, which revealed 35.7% variance. The spring tri-polar pattern SSTA over the North Atlantic is mainly affected by the spring NAO and the central and eastern tropical Pacific SSTA in the previous winter. After eliminating the influence of the previous winter Niño3.4, the partial correlation coefficient between the North Atlantic Tri-pole(NAT) mode index and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is 0.50, which passes the 99% confidence level significance test. After eliminating the effects of spring NAO, the partial correlation coefficient between spring NAT index and the previous winter Niño3.4 index is -0.26, which passes the 95% confidence level significance test. Associated with the sea surface wind and sea surface turbulent heat flux anomalies in North Atlantic, the positive(negative) NAO in spring leads to the positive (negative) NAT SSTA. The previous winter ENSO events can cause atmospheric circulation anomaly and extratropical SST anomaly in spring, which in turn modulate the influence of spring NAO on the North Atlantic tri-polar pattern SSTA in spring. |
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| Keywords: | North Atlantic SST NAO ENSO partial correlation analysis |
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