| 淮河息县站流量概率预报模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 钱名开,徐时进,王善序,王嘉涛.淮河息县站流量概率预报模型研究[J].水文,2004,24(2):23-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 钱名开 徐时进 王善序 王嘉涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 淮河水利委员会水文局,安徽,蚌埠,233001
2. 长江水利委员会水文局,湖北,武汉,430010 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用美国天气局采用的由Roman Krzysztofowicz开发的贝叶斯统计理论建立概率水文预报理论框架，即以分布函数形式定量地描述水文预报不确定度，研究了淮河息县站流量概率预报模型。理论和经验表明，概率预报至少与确定性预报一样有价值，特别当预报不确定度较大时，概率预报比现行确定性预报具有更高的经济价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 贝叶斯概率预报 先验密度 似然函数 后验密度 息县水文站 淮河 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0852(2004)02-0023-03 |
Study on the Probability Flood Forecasting Model at Xixian Gauging Station of Huaihe River Basin |
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| QIAN Ming-kai,XU Shi-jin WANG Shan-xu,WANG Jia-tao Bureau of Hydrology of Huaihe River Water Resources Commission,MWR,Bengbu,China Bureau of Hydrology of Yangtze River Water Resources Commission,MWR,Wuhan,China.Study on the Probability Flood Forecasting Model at Xixian Gauging Station of Huaihe River Basin[J].Hydrology,2004,24(2):23-25. |
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| Authors: | QIAN Ming-kai XU Shi-jin WANG Shan-xu WANG Jia-tao Bureau of Hydrology of Huaihe River Water Resources Commission MWR Bengbu China Bureau of Hydrology of Yangtze River Water Resources Commission MWR Wuhan China |
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| Institution: | QIAN Ming-kai,XU Shi-jin WANG Shan-xu,WANG Jia-tao Bureau of Hydrology of Huaihe River Water Resources Commission,MWR,Bengbu 233001,China Bureau of Hydrology of Yangtze River Water Resources Commission,MWR,Wuhan 430010,China |
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| Abstract: | Based on Bayesian statistic theory (developed by Roman Krzysztofowicz)which was adopted by the
National Weather Service (NWS)of the United States, an academic frame of probability hydrological forecast has
been established, which describes the uncertainty of hydrological forecast by using distribution function.
According to the frame, the model of probability flood forecast at Xixian Gauging Station of Huaihe River Basin
has been studied. The research shows that Bayesian approaches is at least as good as current methods (i.e.
deterministic forecast). And it is more valuable than current methods especially when an obvious uncertainty is
come forth. |
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| Keywords: | Bayesian probability forecast prior density function likelihood function posterior density function Xixian Gauging Station Huaihe River |
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