| 我国西南地区年径流变异及变化趋势研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘春蓁,杨建青.我国西南地区年径流变异及变化趋势研究[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(4):415-422. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘春蓁 杨建青 |
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| 作者单位： | 水利部水文局水利信息中心,北京,100761 |
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| 摘 要： | 用寸滩与梧州水文站上百年长系列径流资料,分析研究了由于气候均值变化引起的年径流均值、表征年径流年际变化幅度的变差系数Cv及表征其分布偏态特征的偏差系数Cs的变化.并研究了仅由均值变化引起的这两个流域丰水、平水及枯水年出现的概率变化.所得结果对气候变化影响下水资源管理中的适应对策问题有一定的参考价值.为了得到气候变化引起的年径流均值和Cv、Cs值的变化,除了应给出未来30年气候均值变化情景外,还应给出气候系列变异的可能变化,以修正原水文-气候基准系列的自然波动.
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| 关 键 词： | 径流 变差及偏差 气候变化 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年5月15日 |
A Study of the Trend of Variability and Change of Annual Runoff in Southwest China |
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| Liu Chunzhen and Yang Jianqing.A Study of the Trend of Variability and Change of Annual Runoff in Southwest China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2002,7(4):415-422. |
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| Authors: | Liu Chunzhen and Yang Jianqing |
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| Abstract: | The change of the average, variance, and skewness of two annual runoff series of 100 years for Cuntan and Wuzhou in Southwest China were presented. The probability of annual runoff for high, normal, and low flow years due to the change of mean annual runoff was studied. The estimated results can be useful in water resources management for considering adaptation to potential climate change in the future. It is needed to give the potential change of climate variability, adding to the future climate scenario for obtaining the related change of average, variance, and skewness of annual runoff. |
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| Keywords: | runoff variance and skewness climate change |
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