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| 广州市主要断层的危险性评价 | |
| 引用本文： | 周庆,冉洪流,吴业彪,陈连旺,李红.广州市主要断层的危险性评价[J].震灾防御技术,2009,4(1):58-68. |
| 作者姓名： | 周庆 冉洪流 吴业彪 陈连旺 李红 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震局地质研究所,北京,100029 2. 广东省地震局,广州,510070 3. 中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京,100085 4. 北京市地震局,北京,100080 |
| 基金项目： | 中国地震区划图编制项目,中国地震活断层探测技术系统项目 |
| 摘 要： | 本文在鉴定广州一从化断裂、瘦狗岭断裂和珠江口断裂活动性的基础上,通过分析区域地球动力学环境、地震活动性及历史地震资料等,估计了上述3条主要断层未来可能发生的最大地震震级为6．0≤M〈6．5。同时,根据断层活动的三维有限元数值模拟、区域中强地震发生与断裂的关系以及目标区现代小震活动分布特点,判断出未来最大地震的发震部位,即最易发生地震的地区为广州．从化断裂与瘦狗岭断裂的交汇区。 |
| 关 键 词： | 断层危险性评价 广州-从化断裂 瘦狗岭断裂 珠江口断裂 三维有限元模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/7/16 0:00:00 |
Seismic Hazard Assessment of Major Faults in Guangzhou City |
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| Zhou Qing,Ran Hongliu,Wu Yebiao,Chen Lianwang and Li Hong.Seismic Hazard Assessment of Major Faults in Guangzhou City[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2009,4(1):58-68. | |
| Authors: | Zhou Qing Ran Hongliu Wu Yebiao Chen Lianwang and Li Hong |
| Institution: | Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China;Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China;Earthquake Administration of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510070, China;Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100085, China;Earthquake Administration of Beijing Municipality, Beijing 100080, China |
| Abstract: | Based on the study of fault activity, regional geodynamics, seismic activity and historical earthquake records, potential earthquake risk with magnitude 6.0≤M〈6.5 has been evaluated in Guangzhou city. In order to determine the potential source where strong earthquakes will occur, we set up a 3-D finite element model, and analyze the relationship between strong earthquake and fault distribution and present-day seismicity. Stress accumulative rate on the surface of Guangzhou-Conghua fault , Shou-Gouling fault and Zhu-jiangkou fault are 0.0428-0.0437bar/a, 0.0063-0.0138bar/a and 0.0059bar/a respectively. Our results suggest that the junction area where Guangzhou-Conghua fault meet Shou-Gouling fault is the place with the highest probability for occurrence of strong earthquake. |
| Keywords: | Seismic hazard assessment Guangzhou-Conghua fault Shougouling fault Zhujiangkou fault 3-D finite element model |
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