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| 钾肥需求模拟研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 吴永娇,马海州,董锁成,田润.钾肥需求模拟研究[J].盐湖研究,2008,16(4). |
| 作者姓名： | 吴永娇 马海州 董锁成 田润 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院青海盐湖研究所,青海,西宁,810008;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049 2. 中国科学院青海盐湖研究所,青海,西宁,810008 3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101 4. 福建省地质调查研究院,福建,福州,350003 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 |
| 摘 要： | 旨在模拟预测中国钾肥需求,为钾肥市场参与者和决策者提供基本的数据和理论支持。运用主成份分析法和多元回归计量经济模型模拟我国钾肥需求。首先,运用主成份分析法对钾肥需求影响因子进行降维处理;其次,采用多元统计非线性回归计量经济学模型模拟钾肥需求。结果表明:(1)钾肥需求与人均耕地、受灾面积、钾肥价格呈负相关关系;(2)钾肥需求与耕地、粮食用地、农产品价格存正相关关系;(3)钾肥需求预测可由较易得的人均耕地、耕地、粮食用地、受灾面积、农产品价格和钾肥价格数据代入模型模拟获得,且模拟数据与现实数据吻合较好;(4)此方法可较广泛运用,不需大量的野外试验和较大的工作量,且无空间跨度差异;(5)政府行为对钾肥需求有着极大的影响作用,政府应发挥其积极性,制定出一套有序的制度安排,以弥补市场本身潜在的问题,引导市场机制不断完善。 |
| 关 键 词： | 钾肥需求 主成份分析 多元回归 模拟 |
Modelling the Demand of Potassium Fertilizer in china |
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| WU Yong-jiao,MA Hai-zhou,DONG Sun-cheng,TIAN Run.Modelling the Demand of Potassium Fertilizer in china[J].Journal of Salt Lake Research,2008,16(4). | |
| Authors: | WU Yong-jiao MA Hai-zhou DONG Sun-cheng TIAN Run |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to simulate and forecast the potassium fertilizer consumption of China,and provide basic data and theory support for the enterprise participation and government decision-making of potassium fertilizer prodnction.The paper used PCA(principle component analysis) and the econometric model to qualify and predict the potassium fertilizer demand of China.Firstly,PCA was used to reduce the dimensions of variable datasets which are the dominant factors affecting the potassium fertilizer demand;then,multiple regression models to simulate the demand of potassium fertilizer.The results show that,(1) there are negative relationship between potassium fertilizer demand and farmland areas per capita,farmland areas hit by natural calamities,and potassium fertilizer price;(2)there are positive relationship between potassium fertilizer demand and farmland areas,cereal cropping land areas and crop price;(3)the predicted potassium fertilizer can be obtained by imputing necessary and available data into the simulation model and the simulated results coincided well with the actual data;(4)the model can be broadly used,being different from the detailed "mechanistic" simulation models which weren't always suited well for calculations spanning a wide range of field conditions;(5)and the policies affect potassium fertilizer demand profoundly. |
| Keywords: | Potassium fertilizer demand Principal component analysis Multi-regression Simulate |
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