| PRED系统特征与可持续农业发展途径选择--以聊城市东昌府区为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 王云才,郭焕成.PRED系统特征与可持续农业发展途径选择--以聊城市东昌府区为例[J].干旱区地理,2000,23(4):358-363. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王云才 郭焕成 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地理研究所乡村发展研究室,北京,100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，49731040， |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对东昌府区PRED系统特征与系统惯性增长的分析揭示制约PRED系统协调发展与可持续农业发展的主要矛盾，在此基础上确立农业可持续发展的总方向，并有针对性地提出可持续发展的对策，主要包括：优化农业结构，促进农业可持续发展；促进农业市场化、企业化和专业化基地发展，推进农业产业化进程；加大盐碱地、中低产田挖潜改造，提高土地生产力；建立农业可持续发展的调控机制。
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| 关 键 词： | PRED系统 可持续农业 发展途径 东昌府区 土地生产力 市场化 产业化 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年1月6日 |
CHARACTERISTICS OF REGIONAL PRED SYSTEM AND CHOICES OF COUNTERMEASURES OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT--A case study of Dongchangfu county of Shandong province |
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| WANG Yun-cai,GUO Huan-cheng.CHARACTERISTICS OF REGIONAL PRED SYSTEM AND CHOICES OF COUNTERMEASURES OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT--A case study of Dongchangfu county of Shandong province[J].Arid Land Geography,2000,23(4):358-363. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yun-cai GUO Huan-cheng |
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| Abstract: | Dongchangfu County is a county of Liaocheng Area of Shandong Province and an agriculture area of north China and Huanghuaihai plain. It has large population and less developed economy, particularly rural economy is backward. With the development of 50 years in the past, it had formed four characteristics of PRED system: firstly, gross population has large scale and is increasing rapidly but is less-educated; secondly, natural resources such as mineral, water and energy are scare, land resources are main natural resources but are poor and less productive; thirdly, natural disasters such as drought, flood, saltization and alkalization had been better prevented from, but some of them still did great damages to the region; fourthly, with the rapid growth of economic, capital and technology inputs are less sufficient, it consumes large resources with large waste* According to the GM (1,1) model and statistic materials from 1978 to 1996, the prediction models of cultivated land, gross population, average cultivated land, agriculture population, regional GNP, water resources consumption and demand of capital were established. It has formed four paradoxical relations with PRED system. The first, population increase rapidly but cultivated land decrease continually; The second, water resources supply can not cater for the demand; The third, large area of less productive land and can not satisfy the desire of people wanted to produce more; The fourth, the inputs of capital and technology can not satisfy the demand of the rapid economic growth. Based on these problems, some countermeasures to the sustainable agriculture are put forth: (1 ) optimizing the agricultural structure, mainly through adjusting the structure of planting; (2) promoting agriculture development by intensification, capitalization, marketing, business and factory; (3) increasing land resources productivity; (4) establish the adjusting controlling system for sustainable agriculture development. |
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| Keywords: | PRED system sustainable agriculture Dongchangfu county |
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