An Estimate for the Size of Cycle 23 Using Multivariate Relationships |
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| Authors: | Shastri S |
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| Institution: | (1) Radio and Atmospheric Science Division, National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi, 110012, India |
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| Abstract: | A new technique based on multivariate analysis is described which allows for the prediction of the size or maximum amplitude of cycle 23. The technique uses the number of geomagnetic disturbances at selected times during the decline of cycle 22 (as precursors) to predict a maximum of about 152 (in terms of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers) for cycle 23. On the basis of this technique, hindcasts for cycles 17–22 are shown to agree with observed values within 5%. |
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