| SQIP方法在华北地区地震中、短期预测中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周翠英,王红卫,张继红,李红,许萍.SQIP方法在华北地区地震中、短期预测中的应用研究[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(2):167-171. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周翠英 王红卫 张继红 李红 许萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省地震局 山东济南250014 |
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| 摘 要： | 对SQIP地震学中期预测方法在华北地区的中期预测效果进行了重新评价,回溯性全时空扫描检验报准率R值约为0.67~0.68。做了方法中短期和短期预测指标的提取尝试。结果表明综合参量P值异常区由最大出现收缩后,平均约7个月左右发生未来主震,其中6个月内的震例约占有“收缩”震例的53%~54%,在3个月内的约占33%~35%;部分震例发生在异常区消失后7~8个月内。表明P值异常区“收缩”(或消失)一定程度上可以作为中、强地震的中短期预测标志。
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| 关 键 词： | SQIP方法 华北 地震预报 综合参量 预测指标 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0844(2006)02-0167-05 |
Application of SQIP Method on the Medium-short Range Earthquake Prediction in Northern China |
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| ZHOU?Cui-ying,WANG?Hong-wei,ZHANG?Ji-hong,LI?Hong and XU?Ping.Application of SQIP Method on the Medium-short Range Earthquake Prediction in Northern China[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2006,28(2):167-171. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU?Cui-ying WANG?Hong-wei ZHANG?Ji-hong LI?Hong and XU?Ping |
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| Institution: | Earthquake Administration of Shandong Province,Jinan 250014, China |
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| Abstract: | The effect of SQIP method on the medium range earthquake prediction in Northern China are reevaluated, the R values calculated by Xu grade criterion are 0.67 - 0. 68 using the retrospective all time-space scan. And the medium-short and short range prediction index of this method is also extracted. The results show that after the anomaly region of synthetical parameter P shrinking about 7 months in average, main earthquake would accure. Among them 53% -54% events accured in 6 months after the shrinking, the 33% -35% events were in 3 months, and a few of events accured after the anomaly region disappeared for 7 - 8 months. Therefore, the anomaly region of synthetical parameter P shrinking or disappearing can be the medium-short range or short range predicting index for moderate strong earthquake. |
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| Keywords: | SQIP method Northern China Earthquake prediction Synthesis parameter Prediction index |
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