Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC’s greenhouse gas emissions scenarios |
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| Authors: | Niels J Schenk Sander M Lensink |
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| Institution: | (1) Centre for Energy and Environmental Studies (IVEM), University of Groningen, Nijenborg 4, Groningen, 9747 AG, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity
of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like
The Economist. This paper reviews scenario literature and SRES, identifies the most vulnerable elements in the communication
of SRES. In the communication of GHG emission scenarios through SRES, the weaknesses that have been identified by the authors
of this paper are the normative character of climate change assessment, the plausibility of the scenarios, and the risk of
simplification of complex messages. The causes of these communicative issues have been identified as the intrinsic difficulties
of interdisciplinary science, the uniqueness of the science-policy relation, and the need for a high degree of transparency.
This paper suggests improving future communication of complex messages from scientists to their audience by means of clear
reasoning when communicating with non-scientists, explicitly normative emission scenarios, and increased stakeholder participation
in scenario development.
Based on a presentation at the “IIASA-YSSP uncertainty seminars,” 22 July 2004, and the discussions thereafter. |
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