| 多元判据综合评估中期天气客观相似预报模式 |
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| 引用本文： | 钟元.多元判据综合评估中期天气客观相似预报模式[J].气象,2003,29(4):3-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 钟元 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州,310004 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科技部研究项目“重大灾害性天气中期预报技术研究”项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出一个对多元判据综合评估的中期天气客观相似预报模式。模式应用同中期天气过程的时间—空间尺度相适应的经过时间滤波的大气环流背景为客观判据，比较全面地评估了预报时刻前后多层次、多要素的大气环流动态变化的相似，通过定义相似指数综合评估在多元判据下样本的相似程度，从相似时域的历史样本中找到较佳相似的中期过程，预测未来l～10天的中期天气过程。模式检验和预报试验表明该模式具有预报技巧。
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| 关 键 词： | 多元判据 中期天气客观相似预报模式 大气环流 相似时域 |
An Objective Analogue Model for Medium-range Weather ForecastConsidered Synthetic Evaluation by Multi-criterion |
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| Zhong Yuan.An Objective Analogue Model for Medium-range Weather ForecastConsidered Synthetic Evaluation by Multi-criterion[J].Meteorological Monthly,2003,29(4):3-9. |
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| Authors: | Zhong Yuan |
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| Abstract: | An objective analogue model for medium range weather forecast considered synthetic evaluation by multi criterion is developed. By using filtered parameters of atmosphere general circulation which resemble medium range weather in the spatial temporal resolution, some objective resembling criterions are built up. Through defining the non linear resembling indexes, with which the resemblance between historical and forecasting samples is evaluated under multi criterion, then some resembling samples are got from historical samples in forward and backward extend time intervals. Synthesizing the historical resembling samples, then the medium range weather prediction is formed. The model inspection and prediction tests show the model is able to predicting skills. |
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| Keywords: | medium range weather multi criterion synthetic evaluation analogue forecast |
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