| 数值预报产品统计释用技术在热带气旋路径客观预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 钟元.数值预报产品统计释用技术在热带气旋路径客观预报中的应用[J].热带气象学报,1998,14(4):314-322. |
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| 作者姓名： | 钟元 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省气象科学研究所, 杭州, 310021 |
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| 摘 要： | 首先对应用数值预报产品统计释脾技术的效果进行了统计。结果表明，数值预报产品和技术的应用改善了热带气旋路径客观预报中预测因子的预报能力，提高了模式的预报技巧并拓展了有效预报时效。继而对热带气旋路径客观预报中若干统计释用技术问题进行了讨论，并指出：在应用数值预报产品构造热带气旋路径客观预报模式时，采用大样本资料和完全预报方法，细心构造反映各种天气系统特征和物理量场的预报因子，应用多时刻产品并对ＮＷＰ产
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 路径 客观预报 统计释用技术 数值预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 1997/12/19 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998/4/20 0:00:00 |
THE APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL INTERPRETATION THCHNIQUES USING NWP PRODUCTS TO OBJECTIVE FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION |
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| Zhong Yuan.THE APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL INTERPRETATION THCHNIQUES USING NWP PRODUCTS TO OBJECTIVE FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,1998,14(4):314-322. |
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| Authors: | Zhong Yuan |
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| Institution: | Zhejiang Research Institude of Meteorological science, Hangzhou, 310021 |
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| Abstract: | The statistical interpretation techniques using NWP products that were applied to objective forecasting tropical cyclone motion have improved forecasting ability of predictors and increased forecast score and extended forecasting valid time.Some techniques in construction of objective forecast model for tropical cycione motion,such as selection of PP model,using bigger sample size,construction of predictors that have higher correlation between it and TC motion,using NWP products for multiple times,correction for errors of NWP and application of consensus forecast have increased forecast score and forecast stability. |
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| Keywords: | Tropical cyclone motion Objective forecast Statistical interpretation techniques |
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