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| 黄河下游不同洪水情景决溢风险评价 | |
| 引用本文： | 夏富强,康相武,吴绍洪,杨勤业,马欣,杨佩国,李晓东.黄河下游不同洪水情景决溢风险评价[J].地理研究,2008,27(1):229-240. |
| 作者姓名： | 夏富强 康相武 吴绍洪 杨勤业 马欣 杨佩国 李晓东 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源所,北京,100001;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039;新疆大学资源环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐,830046 2. 中国科学技术信息研究所,北京,100038 3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源所,北京,100001 4. 中国民政部国家减灾中心,北京,100053 5. 新疆大学资源环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐,830046 |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技攻关项目(96-920-09-01) |
| 摘 要： | 本文提出黄河下游悬河决溢风险的影响因素应当包含水沙运动、区域地壳稳定性、河势演变和堤防稳定性4个方面,并据此建立了指标体系和基于GIS技术的多层次模糊综合评判模型,对不同洪水情景下黄河下游的决溢风险进行了评价。结果表明:(1)决溢风险随着洪水量的增大而增高;(2)决溢风险随河型的沿程变化而降低;(3)决溢风险较大的河段集中在游荡型河段,游荡型河段南岸风险高于北岸;(4)弯曲型河段北岸决溢风险高于南岸;这些结论能够应用于黄河下游河道的治理与防汛抗洪的实践。研究表明:本研究的评价指标体系和方法,能够用于解决黄河下游的决溢风险问题; GIS空间分析技术能够量化不同空间位置的决溢风险,客观地反映不同空间位置决溢风险的差别,对于指导防洪和河道治理的实践具有重要的现实意义。 |
| 关 键 词： | 悬河 影响因素 决溢风险 评价指标体系 GIS技术 多层次模糊综合评判 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0585（2008）01-0229-12 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-03-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-11-27 |
Research on dike breach risk of the hanging reach under different flood conditions in the Lower Yellow River |
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| XIA Fu-qiang,KANG Xiang-wu,WU Shao-hong,YANG Qin-ye,MA Xin,YANG Pei-guo,LI Xiao-dong.Research on dike breach risk of the hanging reach under different flood conditions in the Lower Yellow River[J].Geographical Research,2008,27(1):229-240. | |
| Authors: | XIA Fu-qiang KANG Xiang-wu WU Shao-hong YANG Qin-ye MA Xin YANG Pei-guo LI Xiao-dong |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100001, China; 2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. The College of Resource and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; 4. Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China, Beijing 100038, China; 5. National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Beijing 100053, China |
| Abstract: | The influencing factors of dike beach risk of the hanging reach in the lower Yellow River should involve four aspects,the locomotion of incoming water and sediment load,the regional crustal stability,the evolvement of river regime and the stability of river dikes.The evaluation indexes system of dike breach risk and synthetic model are established from the four aspects.With the support of GIS technology,the evaluation indexes system and the model of multi-hierarchical fuzzy synthetic judgment are applied to estimating the dike breach risk in the lower Yellow River under different flood conditions.The evaluation results show the following distributing regularities:(1) The dike breach risk increases with the increase of flood discharge.(2) Dike breach risk decreases with the channel pattern changes along the river.(3) The reaches with greater dike breach risk are mainly distributed in wandering reaches where the south bank is relativly high.(4) The dike breach risk of the north bank is higher than the south bank in winding reaches.These conclusions can be applied to the practice of flood control and channel regulation in the lower Yellow River.Simultaneously,the evaluation results manifest that the evaluation indexes system and the method can preferably resolve the problem of dike breach risk evaluation.The spatial analysis functions of GIS technology make the dike beach risk in different spatial locations qualified,and reflect the difference of dike beach risk in different spatial locations in the lower Yellow River.It has important practical meaning to direct the practice of flood control and channel regulation. |
| Keywords: | hanging river influencing factors dike breach risk indexes system of evaluation GIS technology fuzzy synthetic judgment |
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