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| 基于T213集合预报的延伸期产品释用方法及初步试验 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈良吕,陈静,陈德辉,田华,周迪,汪娇阳.基于T213集合预报的延伸期产品释用方法及初步试验[J].气象,2014,40(11):1293-1301. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈良吕 陈静 陈德辉 田华 周迪 汪娇阳 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081 2. 中国气象局数值预报中心,北京,100081 3. 成都信息工程学院,成都,610225 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41075035)、国家科技支撑计划(2009BAC51B00)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB417204)和公益性行业（气象）科研专项(GYHY200906007)共同资助 |
| 摘 要： | 基于T213集合预报系统2008年1月中国及附近区域500 hPa高度和850 hPa温度的1~15 d预报资料,构建延伸期产品释用方法,通过对逐日11~15 d预报资料做集合平均和后向衰减权重系数滑动平均,进而得到延伸期(11~15 d)候平均和候距平预报,并对预报效果进行检验,结果表明:对11~15 d预报场做集合平均和后向衰减权重系数滑动平均均能降低预报误差,改善整体预报效果。由此得到的500 hPa高度场和850 hPa温度场11~1 5 d候平均预报误差与逐日控制预报第5d的水平相当,候距平相关系数均接近0.6,整体而言效果较好,具备一定的应用价值。500 hPa高度场和850 hPa温度场11~15 d候距平预报在中国大陆地区位相准确率均较高,东南沿海和东北部分地区稍差,且850 hPa温度场的位相准确率整体高于500 hPa高度场。候距平预报对延伸期(11~15 d)的大范围持续性异常距平具有较强的捕捉能力,对异常距平出现的范围和分布、强距平中心的位置的预报均较好,但强度整体偏弱。 |
| 关 键 词： | T集合预报 延伸期预报 释用方法 候平均 候距平 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/11/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/5/29 0:00:00 |
Interpretation Method of Extended Range Forecast Product Based on T213 EPS and the Preliminary Experiment |
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| CHEN Liangl , CHEN Jing , CHEN Dehui , TIAN Hua , ZHOU Di , WANG Jiaoyang.Interpretation Method of Extended Range Forecast Product Based on T213 EPS and the Preliminary Experiment[J].Meteorological Monthly,2014,40(11):1293-1301. | |
| Authors: | CHEN Liangl CHEN Jing CHEN Dehui TIAN Hua ZHOU Di WANG Jiaoyang |
| Institution: | 1 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081;2 CMA, Numerical Prediction Centre, Beijing 100081;2 CMA, Numerical Prediction Centre, Beijing 100081;2 CMA, Numerical Prediction Centre, Beijing 100081;3 Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225;3 Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225 |
| Abstract: | Based on the 11-15 d forecast data of T213 EPS 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa temperature in China and the adjacent regions in January 2008, an interpretation method of extended range forecast product is designed, and the pentad average and pentad anomaly forecast of extended range (11-15 d) are got after the 11-15 d daily forecast data are processed by ensemble mean, moving average of backward decaying weighting coefficient and pentad average. Meanwhile, the forecast effect of the pentad average and pentad anomaly forecast is verified. The results show that ensemble mean and moving average of backward decaying weighting coefficient both can reduce the prediction error and improve the forecast effect. The pentad mean absolute error of the 11-15 d pentad average forecast of 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa temperature are equal to the level of the 5th d forecast of daily control forecast. The pentad anomaly correlation coefficients of 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa temperature are both close to 0.6. Taken as a whole, the forecast effect of 11-15 d pentad average is good enough to use. The phase accuracy rate of 11-15 d pentad anomaly forecast of 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa temperature are both very good in mainland China except for part of the southeast coastal area and the northeast area. In general, the phase accuracy rate of 850 hPa temperature is better than 500 hPa geopotential height. The 11-15 d pentad anomaly forecast can reflect the persistent large scale anomalous anomaly. The range, distribution and center of anomalous anomaly can all be forecasted well but the overall intensity is weaker than observed field. |
| Keywords: | T213 EPS extended range forecast interpretation method pentad average pentad anomaly |
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