| 双多普勒雷达资料同化在飓风“艾克”预报中的应用研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 沈菲菲,闵锦忠,许冬梅,戴泽军,张冰,陈依濛.双多普勒雷达资料同化在飓风“艾克”预报中的应用研究[J].海洋学报,2016,38(11):60-72. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 沈菲菲 闵锦忠 许冬梅 戴泽军 张冰 陈依濛 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏 南京 210044 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究计划（973计划）项目（OPPAC-2013CB430102）；国家自然科学基金项目（41430427，41375025，41205082，41505089）；江苏省气象局北极阁基金项目（BJG201510）；气象灾害教育部重点实验室开放课题（KLME 1311）。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文采用美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）开发的中尺度数值模式WRFV3.7及其三维变分同化系统WRF-3DVAR对2008年飓风“艾克”进行了数值模拟研究。利用多普勒天气雷达观测资料具有高时空分辨率的优点，将美国两部多普勒天气雷达资料进行速度退模糊等必要质量控制后同化进中尺度数值模式，考察雷达资料同化对飓风“艾克”预报的改进程度。试验结果表明:将雷达资料用于对流尺度分辨率下飓风初始化需要对变分同化系统中特征尺度化因子进行优化调整，使观测资料能够以较为合理的方式调整模式初始场并进而改进预报；雷达径向风同化可以有效调整模式初始场中的飓风动力和热力结构，而经过尺度化因子调整后的雷达径向风同化则在飓风观测中心位置产生较为合理的气旋性风场增量，提供更为确切的中小尺度信息，使模式初始场更加接近观测并进而改进对飓风路径和强度的预报。
|
| 关 键 词： | 飓风 雷达径向风 WRF模式 循环同化 |
| 收稿时间： | 7/9/2015 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/9/23 0:00:00 |
Application of assimilating Dual Doppler radar data in forecast of Hurricane Ike |
| |
| Shen Feifei,Min Jinzhong,Xu Dongmei,Dai Zejun,Zhang Bing and Chen Yimeng.Application of assimilating Dual Doppler radar data in forecast of Hurricane Ike[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica (in Chinese),2016,38(11):60-72. |
| |
| Authors: | Shen Feifei Min Jinzhong Xu Dongmei Dai Zejun Zhang Bing and Chen Yimeng |
| |
| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA,Institute of Hunan Meteorology, Changsha 410118, China,Jiangsu Research Institute of Meteorlogical Science, Nanjing 210044, China and School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The impacts of assimilation of radial velocity (Vr) data for the application of analyses and forecasts for Hurricane Ike (2008) are investigated using the framework of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) V3.7 and its three-dimensional variational data (3DVAR) assimilation system developed by the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). To evaluate the impact of using the high spatial and temporal resolution of the radar data on the forecast of Hurricane Ike, Vr observations from two coastal radars are pre-processed with quality control procedures before they are assimilated using 3DVAR. Results show that, it is necessary to tune the background error length scale factor to better spread out observations for hurricane radar data assimilations. It is found that Vr data are able to adjust the hurricane''s thermal and dynamic structure significantly. With smaller length scale factor, a much clearer cyclonic circulation wind increment around the observed hurricane center can be observed, providing effective meso-and micro scale information for the analysis, which can further improve the hurricane track and intensity forecast. |
| |
| Keywords: | hurricane radial velocity WRF model cycling assimilation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《海洋学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《海洋学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
