| 西安市白鹿塬滑坡发生时间预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 缪卫东,侯连中.西安市白鹿塬滑坡发生时间预测研究[J].西北地质,2003,36(4):90-95. |
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| 作者姓名： | 缪卫东 侯连中 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏省地质调查研究院,江苏,南京,210018
2. 陕西省气象局,陕西,西安,710069 |
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| 摘 要： | 笔者通过对白鹿塬区降水与滑坡发生时间之间的规律进行总结，认为本区滑坡发生与降水的丰年有着密切的关系，并应用卡尔曼滤波分析法对白鹿塬区滑坡发生时间进行了全区性预测，提出白鹿塬滑坡发生具有10年左右的中周期，20年左右的长周期，应及早作好防治工作。
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| 关 键 词： | 白鹿塬 滑坡 卡尔曼滤波分析法 时间预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-6248(2003)04-0090-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年2月18日 |
Time prediction study on occurring of landslides in Bailuyuan,Xi'an |
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| MIAO Wei-dong.Time prediction study on occurring of landslides in Bailuyuan,Xi''''an[J].Northwestern Geology,2003,36(4):90-95. |
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| Authors: | MIAO Wei-dong |
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| Abstract: | The author thinks that there is a very good relativity between occurring of landsides and rainfall in Bailuyuan area, according to the data of weather in Bailuyuan area and using Kerman sieve wave analysis method.It is conclusions that there are 5 years short cycle, 10 years middle cycle and 20 years long cycle in landslides of Bailuyuan area. Hence, the judgment that there is a concentrated occurring of landslides in 2003 is made. Meanwhile, the difference and regulation of rainfall in different neighbour area are discovered, and prediction of rainfall in Bailuyuan area can be made according to the rainfall information from Ninqiang county. Therefore, the preventive methods of landslides can be made ahead of time. |
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| Keywords: | Bailuyuan landslides Kerman sieve wave analysis methods time prediction |
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