A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean |
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| Authors: | Mohammad Heidarzadeh Andrzej Kijko |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran;(2) Aon Benfield Natural Hazard Centre, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa |
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| Abstract: | A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment is performed for the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean
employing a combination of probability evaluation of offshore earthquake occurrence and numerical modeling of resulting tsunamis.
In our method, we extend the Kijko and Sellevoll’s (1992) probabilistic analysis from earthquakes to tsunamis. The results suggest that the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan,
as well as Muscat, Oman are the most vulnerable areas among those studied. The probability of having tsunami waves exceeding
5 m over a 50-year period in these coasts is estimated as 17.5%. For moderate tsunamis, this probability is estimated as high
as 45%. We recommend the application of this method as a fresh approach for doing probabilistic hazard assessment for tsunamis.
Finally, we emphasize that given the lack of sufficient information on the mechanism of large earthquake generation in the
MSZ, and inadequate data on Makran’s paleo and historical earthquakes, this study can be regarded as the first generation
of PTHA for this region and more studies should be done in the future. |
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