| Abstract: | Three types of models are frequently applied to problems of present or past climates: (1) the energy balance model (EBM), which can be solved for the mean thermal state of the climate system based only on thermodynamical considerations, (2) the statistical dynamical model (SDM), which includes momentum considerations from which one can solve for climate statistics on a monthly or seasonal time scale including mean poloidal motions and the hydrologic cycle, and (3) the general circulation model (GCM), which can be solved for the evolving daily weather patterns that are then post-processed to yield all the climate statistics in much the same manner as synoptic data are processed. One major drawback of nearly all these models is that they typically do not consider the subsurface vertical heat fluxes (e.g., the effect of deep ocean temperatures and circulation). We present results froman SDM developed in the late 1960's that includes the parameterized effects of subsurface heat fluxes, and then use these results to demonstrate the importance that deep ocean temperatures can have in determining the climatic state. In this SDM, the ratio of the surface short wave absorption to the surface conductive capacity emerges as a quantity that competes with the subsurface (e.g., deep ocean) temperature in determining surface temperatures. For land, the conductive capacity is small and short wave absorption plays an important role; however, for the ocean the conductive capacity is large and the subsurface (deep ocean) temperature is the dominant influence on the surface temperature for the time scale over which the model is valid. This SDM also includes several of the most important features absent in an EBM, namely, an explicit dependence on the intrinsic physical nature of the earth's surface, the mean poloidal motions in the atmosphere that lead to the climate zonation, and a representation of the hydrologic cycle.When deep ocean temperatures in the model are increased to levels suggested by geologic data for the Cretaceous, surface temperatures at mid to high latitudes become much warmer and the circulation of the atmosphere becomes much subdued, especially as indicated by eddy statistics. These results hold for both present-day and Cretaceous land-ocean distributions, indicating that deep ocean temperature, not geography, is the key model boundary condition. The results also agree with interpretations of geologic data, but disagree in part with earlier interpretations of GCM studies of the Cretaceous. Removal of sea ice (with resultant change from a land-like to an ocean surface) accounts for much of the high latitude warming. |
