Sensitivity of discharge and flood frequency to twenty-first century and late Holocene changes in climate and land use (River Meuse,northwest Europe) |
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| Authors: | Philip J Ward Hans Renssen Jeroen C J H Aerts Peter H Verburg |
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| Institution: | (1) Department ArGEnCo, Unit of Hydrology, Applied Hydrodynamics and Hydraulic Constructions, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium;(2) Fund for Scientific Research, F.R.S.-FNRS, Brussels, Belgium |
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| Abstract: | We used a calibrated coupled climate–hydrological model to simulate Meuse discharge over the late Holocene (4000–3000 BP and
1000–2000 AD). We then used this model to simulate discharge in the twenty-first century under SRES emission scenarios A2
and B1, with and without future land use change. Mean discharge and medium-sized high-flow (e.g. Q99) frequency are higher in 1000–2000 AD than in 4000–3000 BP; almost all of this increase can be attributed to the conversion
of forest to agriculture. In the twentieth century, mean discharge and the frequency of medium-sized high-flow events are
higher than in the nineteenth century; this increase can be attributed to increased (winter half-year) precipitation. Between
the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, anthropogenic climate change causes a further increase in discharge and medium-sized
high-flow frequency; this increase is of a similar order of magnitude to the changes over the last 4,000 years. The magnitude
of extreme flood events (return period 1,250-years) is higher in the twenty-first century than in any preceding period of
the time-slices studied. In contrast to the long-term influence of deforestation on mean discharge, changes in forest cover
have had little effect on these extreme floods, even on the millennial timescale. |
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